Economist uses Drake equation to predicts odds of finding GF

[EnumaElish]

I thought this forum is the perfect place to post this:

Math Geek Comes Up With Equation to Explain His Lack of a Girlfriend

Backus reimagined [Drake] equation by inserting U.K. population figures along with the general parameters for his potential girlfriend: a woman between the age of 24 and 34, with a university degree, whom he finds attractive. Simple enough. But there are complications. First, the woman in question must find him attractive (a 1-in-20 chance, he estimated). Second, she must herself be single (50-50). Lastly, he must get along with her (1-in-10).

The result of the equation? Of the roughly 30 million women in the U.K., only 26 are potential mates for Backus. In his conclusion to the paper, Backus expresses this more depressingly: "On a given night in London, there is a 0.0000034 percent chance of meeting one of these special people."

http://www.asylum.com/2010/01/11/pe...-that-you-shouldnt-feel-bad-if-you-dont-have/

 

[f95toli]

That is somehow both funny and somewhat discouraging at the same time (I am single at the moment)...

 

[Pengwuino]

I assume he added in the fact that he spends his time doing stuff like this in the factors for why he won't find a gf.

 

[Pinu7]

Apparently, according to the article, he has a GF(after the paper was written?). I think his second paper should be

"An experiment on how mathematical modeling affects love life."

 

[rewebster]

shoot, I use the Drake equation when I choose the bread for the week---


and whether to post something...

 

[EnumaElish]

Apparently, according to the article, he has a GF

Does this mean there's is yet hope for finding intelligent life in the universe, during my lifetime?

 

[BobG]

In my city, there's about 0.758 women that would be an acceptable match. That's actually good news. Considering about 1 out of every 208 million women in the US will be a good match for me, the fact that she's missing a major body part is an advantage.

A woman with a missing leg will be easier to spot in a crowd.

(Plus, I'll bet she'll be really good at speaking in pirate talk, you know. Yaargh!)

 

[joelupchurch]

They did a bit like this on the "The Big Bang Theory". It involved applying the Wolowitz Coefficient (neediness times dress size squared).
Here is a You tube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4CYSHV84jY"

 

[Matterwave]

At the rate of .0000034% chance per night, it would take 559 years to raise his chances of meeting the girl to 50%, 1100 years to raise it to 75%, and 3711 years to raise it to 99%.

Yet...he got a girl friend within a short period of time. If he got a girl friend within one year, that means he beat a 99.88% chance of failure. Either his math is off, or he's incredibly lucky...

 

[f95toli]

At the rate of .0000034% chance per night, it would take 559 years to raise his chances of meeting the girl to 50%, 1100 years to raise it to 75%, and 3711 years to raise it to 99%.

Yet...he got a girl friend within a short period of time. If he got a girl friend within one year, that means he beat a 99.88% chance of failure. Either his math is off, or he's incredibly lucky...

Well, the guy IS an economist...

 

[Moonbear]

In my city, there's about 0.758 women that would be an acceptable match. That's actually good news. Considering about 1 out of every 208 million women in the US will be a good match for me, the fact that she's missing a major body part is an advantage.

A woman with a missing leg will be easier to spot in a crowd.

Not to mention she'd have a harder time running away when she spots you walking toward her.

 

[leroyjenkens]

I could use that equation to find out what the chances are of me finding something I want to eat when I walk in my kitchen.
The chances would be almost zero. As I continue looking, my standards get lower and lower and my chances of finding something I want to eat increases. If it's bad enough, my changes of finding something to eat will end up being 100% and have me eating one of those giant shredded wheat biscuits with some slimfast powder for flavor. Which I've done.

So his chances may be low at first, but the longer he stays single, the parameters he inputted into the equation gradually change.