Expected Value of a Maximum

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around finding the expected value of the maximum of two independent standard Gaussian variables, X and Y. Participants explore various mathematical approaches and integrals related to this problem, including definitions and interpretations of the terms involved.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants clarify that "standard" refers to a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
  • There is a question about the meaning of "maximum" in the context of X and Y, with some participants seeking clarification on whether it refers to the sum, product, or independent values.
  • One participant presents an integral approach to compute the expected value of the maximum, suggesting that the expectation can be derived from the distribution of Z = max(X,Y).
  • Another participant challenges the calculations presented, expressing skepticism about the method used to compute the expected value of the maximum when both variables have the same sign.
  • Several participants propose alternative methods for calculating the expected value, including using two-dimensional integrals and considering the symmetry of the problem.
  • There is a discussion about the validity of different representations of the answer, with some participants noting that certain forms may not be acceptable in the context of the original problem.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the correctness of various approaches and calculations. There is no consensus on the final expected value or the methods used to derive it, indicating that multiple competing views remain.

Contextual Notes

Some participants highlight the complexity of integrating over two-dimensional space and the assumptions involved in their calculations. There are unresolved questions about the appropriateness of certain mathematical steps and representations.

Euge
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If X and Y are independent standard Gaussian variables, find the expected value of the maximum of X and Y.

Note: This problem is due to @Office_Shredder.
 
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Euge said:
If X and Y are independent standard Gaussian variables, find the expected value of the maximum of X and Y.

Note: This problem is due to @Office_Shredder.
What does the word standard mean here? Mean 0 and standard deviation of 1?
 
jbergman said:
What does the word standard mean here? Mean 0 and standard deviation of 1?
Yes.
 
jbergman said:
What does the word standard mean here? Mean 0 and standard deviation of 1?
What do you mean by the maximum of X and Y? The sum, the product, independent of each other?
 
bob012345 said:
What do you mean by the maximum of X and Y? The sum, the product, independent of each other?
##\mathbf{E}(\max(X,Y))##
 
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Will take a stab

The definite integral for the expectation of a Gaussian is
##-exp(-x^2/2)/sqrt(2 π)##

For 2 draws of a standard normal, 50% of the outcomes will have a positive and negative number, the expectation in this case is
##1/sqrt(2 π)## = 0.40
The integral from 0 to inf

The next case has (x,y) both positive
Using above, the expectation for the minimum of the two positive draws
is
##1/sqrt(2 π)##, then the expectation of the max is the integral from
##1/sqrt(2 π)## to inf, which is
##exp(-0.4^2)/sqrt(2π)## = 2.13

For x,y both negative, the max is the integral from
##-1/sqrt(2 π)## to zero, which is
##-1/sqrt(2 π) +exp(-1/4π)/sqrt(2π)## =-0.22

So .5(0.40)+.25(2.13) + .25*(-0.22) = 0.68
 
That's not the right number. When they have opposite signs I think you have the right answer, but when they're the same sign I think you're doing something wrong. I don't know how you get the expected value of the smaller one, and I'm skeptical you can compute the expected value of the larger one by just integrating from e.v. of smaller one to infinity (maybe that works but it's not obvious to me)
 
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I put Z = max(X,Y) then considered P(Z < z) = P(X < z)P(Y < z), which is\begin{align*}
P(Z<z) = \frac{1}{2\pi} \left( \int_{-\infty}^{z} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^2} dx \right)^2
\end{align*}differentiating this gives the distribution of Z\begin{align*}
f(z) = \frac{1}{\pi} e^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx
\end{align*}then the expectation of Z would be\begin{align*}
E(Z) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} zf(z) dz &= \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} ze^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \left( \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right) dz \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi} \left[ -e^{-\frac{1}{2} z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right]_{-\infty}^{\infty} + \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} e^{-z^2} dz \\
&= 0 + \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}
\end{align*}
 
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ergospherical said:
I put Z = max(X,Y) then considered P(Z < z) = P(X < z)P(Y < z), which is\begin{align*}
P(Z<z) = \frac{1}{2\pi} \left( \int_{-\infty}^{z} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^2} dx \right)^2
\end{align*}differentiating this gives the distribution of Z\begin{align*}
f(z) = \frac{1}{\pi} e^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx
\end{align*}then the expectation of Z would be\begin{align*}
E(Z) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} zf(z) dz &= \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} ze^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \left( \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right) dz \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi} \left[ -e^{-\frac{1}{2} z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right]_{-\infty}^{\infty} + \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} e^{-z^2} dz \\
&= 0 + \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}
\end{align*}
I think that's excellent, but you'll get zero marks from @Office_Shredder for leaving that ##0## in the answer. It shows you are just regurgitating symbols back at him!
 
  • #11
Office_Shredder said:
Nice work @ergospherical. I actually computed this via a pretty different looking starting integral if anyone else is still poking around at other solutions.
I wonder what? This:
ergospherical said:
I put Z = max(X,Y) then considered P(Z < z) = P(X < z)P(Y < z), which is \begin{align*}
P(Z<z) = \frac{1}{2\pi} \left( \int_{-\infty}^{z} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^2} dx \right)^2
\end{align*}
is the only way I can see?
 
  • #12
pbuk said:
I wonder what? This:

is the only way I can see?

You can write the expected value as a two dimensional integral by definition, and then solve from there.
 
  • #13
Office_Shredder said:
You can write the expected value as a two dimensional integral by definition, and then solve from there.
Isn't that what @ergospherical has done?
 
  • #14
pbuk said:
Isn't that what @ergospherical has done?
I don't see any integrals over 2 dimensional space there.
 
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  • #15
pbuk said:
Isn't that what @ergospherical has done?
An alternative is to note that it's equally likely that the first variable, ##x##, is the maximum, so we have:
$$E(max(X, Y)) = E(X: X = max(X,Y)) = \frac 1 {2\pi}\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} xe^{-\frac 1 2 x^2} \int_{-\infty}^{x} e^{-\frac 1 2 y^2}\ dy \ dx$$$$= \frac 1 {2\pi} \int_0^{\infty}\int_{-\frac 3 4 \pi}^{\frac \pi 4} r^2e^{-\frac 1 2 r^2} \cos \theta \ d\theta \ dr = \frac 1 {\sqrt 2 \pi}\int_0^{\infty} r^2e^{-\frac 1 2 r^2} \ dr$$$$=\frac 1 {\sqrt 2 \pi}\sqrt{2\pi} = \frac 1 {\sqrt \pi}$$
 

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