Expiration date on the economy as we know it

[Michael Price]

Fifty years ago we sent 12 people to the moon. We haven't been back since. Yet we are expected to believe that in "a few decades" one will have a pocket device that can fabricate a trillion houses in space and "few", the number of decades, is so small we need to worry about it night now.

We haven't been back to the Moon because there wasn't, and still isn't, an economic case for space exploration. Going to the Moon was a publicity stunt. But AI and robotics is being driven by commercial considerations, Moore's Law and such like.
Economic reality is being ignored in this thread. Pie in the sky does not happen.
For a technology to change to the world it has to be:
1) technically possible
2) economically viable
AI and robotics is only going to change the world precisely because it is NOT free.
Let's take a contemporary example. Solar energy. Sunlight is free, but solar energy is not. Solar energy or photovoltaics (and other renewables) is revolutionizing the world not because it is free (it isn't) but because it is cheap - cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations and getting cheaper.

 

[Michael Price]

[AI is] Just like every other tool we've developed over the past few millennia.

AI is not like every other tool. There is a qualitative difference between augmenting human labour and replacing humans with something cheaper and better.

 

[PAllen]

More and more it keeps ocuring to me that the modern economies and styles of government that we have now may have a fast approaching expiration date. For example, with AI and autonomous robotics, we could soon have exponentially fast growing industrial complexes in space. And the amount of precious resources available in asteroids dwarf those that we have access to on Earth, not to mention mining them doesn't harm our environment. So who dominates in space and robtics+AI will control the planet? Will there soon be a time when making a living wage through time-value transactions will be obsolete? So what will we do if that is the case? Should this be a hot button political issue?

Just pointing out that this is very similar to predictions by Karl Marx circa 1850 for the "not too distant future". How well did that prediction fare?

 

[Jarvis323]

Just pointing out that this is very similar to predictions by Karl Marx circa 1850 for the "not too distant future". How well did that prediction fare?

Comparisons with apparently similar historical events is something worth doing. But in the end, you have to analyze a unique situation on its own merit.

 

[Vanadium 50]

And how is this relevant?

I am coming to the agreement that this discussion is more about science fiction than science.

 

[MikeeMiracle]

I think it's telling that most scientists are primarily concerned with making changes due to climate change.

I think we need to focus on this problems which are right here and right now rather then worry about an issue which to me seems at least 100 years away.

 

[pinball1970]

And how is this relevant?

I am coming to the agreement that this discussion is more about science fiction than science.

 

[gleem]

Autonomous robots exist today so it is not scifi. Mars lander Curiosity is one application AI let it operate when in-communicato with Earth. There could and will be much more sophisticated devices sent In the probe being sent to Europa to explore the ice layer an autonomous device called Valkyrie will be deployed to drill below the ice layer. For probes sent to Jupiter for example it take about 54 minute to send a signal to a probe. The probe must have capabilities to respond to changes that might occur between signals sent and received. It seems to me that the AI available on Earth for say, autonomous cars is even more sophisticated.

When it comes to the commercialization of space the age old paradigm of cost to benefit will be employed. What innovations will reduce cost. Look at SpaceX which reduced cost of a launch to only $60 M. The almost perfect vacuum of outer space will have definite manufacturing advantages for some processes as well as availability of of continuous solar power.

 

[bhobba]

More and more it keeps ocuring to me that the modern economies and styles of government that we have now may have a fast approaching expiration date.

During my student days I remember when I turned up to the subject Methods Of Mathematical Economics I was the only student. The lecturer almost canceled the subject but the others I could have done instead didn't really appeal and my academic adviser said it was probably a good idea to do some kind of humanities subject so is there some way I could still do it?. He said OK and I used to see him for an hour once a week in his room where he gave me reading, problems to do and assignments - usually computer simulations.

The above was just a pre-amble. I always remember what he said on the first day. Our current models are all basically a crock when compared with what actually happens. For example it is well known department of treasury predictions are never right - they always make assumptions such as people will put their savings into the bank to get safe interest from which they can collect tax. Instead they often put it in the share market to avoid just that. Nice math and some interesting insights but they never really actually work. With the advent of more powerful computer and complex models, our ability to predict short term economics was getting better, medium term had some value as a guide, but long term - still utterly useless. I do not think things have changed - predicting long term what our economy will look like is just an intellectual exercise not to be taken seriously.

I sometimes do it eg discuss with people the idea with more automation maybe in the future we all will have a basic wage and only a sort of technical elite will have a job maintaining the automation and of course a political elite doing whatever politicians do. Regardless of how such deliberations pan out I am in no doubt its chances of being correct are zero.

Thanks
Bill