Flowcharting Boardgames: 49/216 Chances of Landing on Scenario 1

[DaveC426913]

I'm having a heckuva time flowcharting a boardgame.

First hurdle:

Here's the first six squares. Roll a 1 6-sided die:

Begin
[ ]
[ ]
[Scenario 1]
[ ]
[ ]
[Scenario 2]

What are the total chances of landing on Scenario 1?

They could roll any of the following:
3
1,2
1,1,1
2,1

Is it 1/6 + 1/36 + 1/216 + 1/36?

Yes. It must be.

So that's 49/216.

 

[bpet]

Perhaps writing it as a Markov model would help simplify the analysis?

 

[DaveC426913]

Hm. Well, it is not entirely die-driven. I've just shown one part.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

I'm having a heckuva time flowcharting a boardgame.

They could roll any of the following:
3
1,2
1,1,1
2,1

Is it 1/6 + 1/36 + 1/216 + 1/36?

Yes. It must be.

So that's 49/216.

What are the rules for going from step to step?

[Get 3, stop]; [get 1, roll again; get 2, stop]; [get 1 three consecutive times; stop] [get 2, roll again; get 1, stop] All other outcomes are a loss? If so, then I agree with your probability for getting anyone of the four outcomes prior to the first roll.