How long to solve and commercialize fusion power with a crash program?

[wildman]

That last thread on Fusion was interesting. Now I have a question for the experts:

How long would it take to solve and commercialize fusion power problems given an all out crash program? And how much money would that represent? What would be the risk factor of out right failure? Thanks!

 

[vanesch]

30 years ! Must be a good number, because that's already 50 years that one answers that question with "30 years"

No, seriously, I think people became smarter, and don't make such prognoses anymore. I'd say, don't count on it before 2070, because ITER just started, and if all goes well, after ITER they'll try to make DEMO.

 

[JeffKoch]

For IFE, a truly all-out crash program would have to train a lot of new scientists and engineers in a complex field, and that would have to take at least 10 years. Another 10 to solve the formidable technical challenges, and another 10 to cover unknown risks, and I get... hmm, 30 years. I have no idea what this would cost, but given unlimited funding and an Apollo-like focus I think it's technically possible.

 

[Morbius]

No, seriously, I think people became smarter, and don't make such prognoses anymore. I'd say, don't count on it before 2070, because ITER just started, and if all goes well, after ITER they'll try to make DEMO.

vanesch,

People have been saying 20 to 30 years for the past 50 years.

It's a little like asking "How long will it take to completely eradicate cancer?"

Until you actually do it - and know what it takes to do it - you can't answer the question.

Dr. Gregory Greenman
Physicist

 

[theCandyman]

The time until fusion becomes commercialized is another constant in fusion.