Geomagnetic storm expected 15-18 February in high latitudes

[davenn]

Hi everyone
A large and well placed coronal hole is now in a geo-effective position.
This will most likely produce geomagnetic storming for high latitude regions in both the northern and southern hemispheres ( 40 deg and higher)
Keep an eye on the sky for the 15th to 17th Feb. ( with the long length of this CH, auroral activity may extend into the 18th)

@DrClaude

In future, if others wany to be notified, let me know and I will tag you as well Dave

 

[Wrichik Basu]

In future, if others what to be notified, let me know and I will tag you as well

Put me into your list. Though I don't understand too much of cosmological phenomena, but I do like to see pictures and keep information about them.

 

[fresh_42]

In future, if others want to be notified, let me know and I will tag you as well

I'm in. Great service!

 

[jedishrfu]

Me too, I mean me three.

 

[Borek]

Me four.

 

[Ibix]

Me five.

 

[davenn]

Thanks for the feedback guys

I will tag all of you each time plus any others that respond with a yes from now on
Yes, I will create a file that I can copy and paste the tagged names from

Aurora don't happen every week and sometimes a month or more can go by without anything spectactularregards
Dave

 

[mathman]

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Above site (you can get on e-mail list) is great source for this and other space related phenomenons.

 

[davenn]

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Above site (you can get on e-mail list) is great source for this and other space related phenomenons.

yes indeed, have used it for many years

 

[davenn]

Hi all

the large and elongated coronal hole that produced aurora early Feb has rotated back into view again.
It will be come geo-effective over the next 24 hours and solar wind from the hole will start reaching Earth approx. 36 - 48 hours after that
Because the CH is elongated, it should provide auroral conditions for a number of days.
For those at high latitudes, ~ 45 deg and higher, keep an eye on the from approx. Wednesday through to Sunday

@DrClaude
@Wrichik Basu
@fresh_42
@jedishrfu
@Borek
@Ibixcheers
Dave

 

[Borek]

Thanks. But it is simply unjust

Each time I check the image at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg it shows that North America has much better forecast. Several times in the last few weeks predictions for US were such that - where they rotated to cover Europe - I would be able to see the aurora in Poland. But on our side of the pond it never goes that far south.

 

[fresh_42]

Thanks. But it is simply unjust

Each time I check the image at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg it shows that North America has much better forecast. Several times in the last few weeks predictions for US were such that - where they rotated to cover Europe - I would be able to see the aurora in Poland. But on our side of the pond it never goes that far south.

You should try Gdansk and not always hang around in Katowice

 

[Borek]

You should try Gdansk and not always hang around in Katowice

Won't help, it never got to the southern shores of Baltic. Stockholm, Helsinki at best.

 

[glappkaeft]

Thanks. But it is simply unjust

Each time I check the image at http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg it shows that North America has much better forecast. Several times in the last few weeks predictions for US were such that - where they rotated to cover Europe - I would be able to see the aurora in Poland. But on our side of the pond it never goes that far south.

The reason is that the magnetic north pole is closer to North America than to Europe. On the plus side Europe has a much warmer climate for the same latitude which usually means that there is a lot more people living up north.

 

[Borek]

Makes sense. My first thought was that it is a seasonal thing, related to the Earth's tilted axis.

 

[davenn]

Hi all

the large and elongated coronal hole that produced aurora mid March has rotated back into view again.
The leading end of it is now in a geo-effective position and solar wind from the hole will start reaching Earth approx. 24 - 48 hours
Because the CH is elongated, it should provide auroral conditions for a number of days.
For those at high latitudes, ~ 45 deg and higher, keep an eye on the from approx. Sunday through to approx. Thursday

It produced some bright aurora last month

image credit ... https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest.html

@DrClaude
@Wrichik Basu
@fresh_42
@jedishrfu
@Borek
@Ibixcheers
Dave

 

[Borek]

This time I have a no-cloud forecast for the next few days. Not that I expect much, typically I am around 1000 km too far South to see anything :(

 

[davenn]

An alert has been released
Note ... tho this is for the southern hemisphere, it is also applicable for the northern hemisphere

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/07
ISSUED AT 0333UT/09 APRIL 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

On 10-11 April, expect the geomagnetic activity to increase to
mostly unsettled and at times active levels in response to the
arrival of co-rotation interaction region (CIR) and subsequent
high speed stream (HSS) associated with a low-latitude coronal
hole.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 10-11 APRIL 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
10 Apr: Unsettled to Active
11 Apr: Unsettled to Active

Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060cheers
Dave

 

[davenn]

hi guys
A large recurrent coronal hole is just becoming geoeffective
We should start seeing the arrival of higher speed and density solar wind in the next 24 - 48 hours
Those in northern or southern hemisphere high latitudes ~ 45 deg and higher should keep an eye on the northern or southern skies ( respectively)
This coronal hole produced some stunning aurora on its last rotation.

Credit ... https://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest_aia_193.gif@DrClaude
@Wrichik Basu
@fresh_42
@jedishrfu
@Borek
@Ibixcheers
Dave

 

[Wrichik Basu]

Those in northern or southern hemisphere high latitudes ~ 45 deg and higher should keep an eye on the northern or southern skies ( respectively)

Oops, Kolkata is near tropic of cancer, so no chance for us

 

[davenn]

OK the first burst of high speed solar wind has arrived

WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE DETECTED (10nT) IN SWS MAG DATA 05 05 18 1026UT
Mean Mag Parameters Pre/Post Impulse:
Pre Post Pre/Post
Stn Unit Impulse Impulse Change
can nT -30.2 -20.1 10.2
clg nT -89.6 -88.5 1.1
lrm nT 23.7 37.3 13.6
cht nT -470.5 -458.4 12.2
twn nT -77.9 -66.1 11.8
tvl nT -540.8 -529.0 11.8
cki nT -117.1 -107.5 9.6
kdu nT 135.1 146.0 10.9

Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au

 

[davenn]

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 18/09
ISSUED AT 0004UT/06 MAY 2018
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 06-08 MAY 2018
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
06 May: Active with possible Minor Storm periods
07 May: Active with possible Minor Storm periods
08 May: Unsettled to Active

Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060