Understanding the Bias in Binomial Distribution for Probability Calculations

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the application of the binomial distribution and the calculation of expected value (E(X)) and variance (Var(X)) in the context of a probability problem involving rolling a die with biased outcomes. Participants explore the appropriateness of using binomial formulas in this scenario.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a probability distribution for rolling a die with varying probabilities for each outcome and questions the use of binomial distribution formulas for calculating E(X) and Var(X).
  • Another participant asserts that the scenario does not represent a binomial distribution, suggesting that the standard formulas for expected value and variance cannot be applied.
  • A different participant proposes using basic definitions for E(X) and variance, providing a formula based on the probabilities given.
  • One participant calculates E(X) and variance based on the probabilities provided, interpreting E(X) as the expected number of 4's in 10 rolls.
  • Another participant challenges the interpretation of E(X) as the "amount of 4's," emphasizing that E(X) represents the expected score rather than a count of specific outcomes.
  • A participant expresses a desire to understand how the E(X) = np formula could relate to the problem, specifically in finding the probability of rolling a certain number of 4's.
  • One participant questions the use of the variable X to represent both the outcome of a single roll and the count of a specific outcome over multiple rolls, highlighting potential confusion in notation.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the application of binomial distribution concepts to the problem. There are competing views on the interpretation of E(X) and the appropriateness of using binomial formulas.

Contextual Notes

There is ambiguity regarding the definitions and roles of the variable X in the context of the discussion, as well as the assumptions underlying the use of binomial distribution formulas.

buddingscientist
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binomial distribution

Prob of rolling a 1 = 1/10, rolling a 2 = 2/10, 3 = 3/10, 4 = 4/10
Let X be the value thrown
Calculate E(X) and Var(X)


To do this can't use E(X) = np and can't use Var(X) = npq
is this correct?
 
Last edited:
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This isn't a binomial distribution, so no using those formulae won't help.
 
You can, however, use the basic definitions:

E(x)= &Sigma(xProb(x))= 1*prob(1)+ 2*prob(2)+ 3*prob(3)+ 4*prob(4).

&sigma(x)= &sqrt((x- E(x))2Prob(x)).
 
thanks a lot,

so to use those formula, we could find that the E(X) amount of 4's, out of 10 rolls, would be

4/10 * 10 = 4

and the variance 4/10 * 6/10 * 10 = 2.4
 
Last edited:
"E(X) amount of 4's"

E(X) is the expectation of the score. I don't see what the 'amount of 4s' has to do with it.

As was written above the expectation is:

1/10 + 2*2/10 + 3*3/10 +4*4/10 = 3.
 
yes, i know
i wanted to know a use of the E(X) = np formual with respect to that question, the use of it was to find the probability of the amount of 4's out of 10 rolls
 
In that case why did you use X for two different things? The outcome of one throw and the number of 4s occurring in 10 rolls?
 

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