How likely is it that I will be infected?

[kenny1999]

Someone in a grocery store coughed suddenly and we were face to face within less than 1 meter but he was wearing a mask and me too. It was the night time so that assume his mask was used for more than 8 hours, and my mask was used for 12 hours. I was not talking to him, I just walked across him so it was about a second of time but the bad was that he coughed at that instant second, it was very close ,if not intentional. I'm not asking for medical advice so please do not close my thread but a wild guess without any responsibilities.

P.S. I can assume that his mask was up to standard and used for 8 hours but I cannot assume that he is healthy, if I assume that he is healthy then I will not raise this concern, so just assume he is infected.P.S. Sorry I try to bring my concern into more precise question, if you think there are many possibilities. How likely virus or how much virus would be filtered by the mask if a mask (not the highest standard one used in clinics) is used for about 8 hours

 

[atyy]

The length of use is not that critical, as long as the mask is still clean, dry and intact (as opposed to being wet).

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636360
The quality of face masks healthcare workers wear makes a huge difference to their risk of Coronavirus infection, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust research has found.

Do you live in a country where vaccinations are available? If so, you should get vaccinated as soon as possible.

 

[kenny1999]

The length of use is not that critical, as long as the mask is still clean, dry and intact (as opposed to being wet).

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636360
The quality of face masks healthcare workers wear makes a huge difference to their risk of Coronavirus infection, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust research has found.

Do you live in a country where vaccinations are available? If so, you should get vaccinated as soon as possible.

I have no idea the condition of his mask. But my mask was dry, I don't know if it was clean. And I put on my mask correctly, covering my nose correctly

 

[jack action]

If you are looking for some numbers, you may like this case study based on the original strain of Covid:

Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study examined a community COVID-19 outbreak in Zhejiang province. On January 19, 2020, 128 individuals took 2 buses (60 [46.9%] from bus 1 and 68 [53.1%] from bus 2) on a 100-minute round trip to attend a 150-minute worship event. The source patient was a passenger on bus 2. We compared risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among at-risk individuals taking bus 1 (n = 60) and bus 2 (n = 67 [source patient excluded]) and among all other individuals (n = 172) attending the worship event. We also divided seats on the exposed bus into high-risk and low-risk zones according to the distance from the source patient and compared COVID-19 risks in each zone. In both buses, central air conditioners were in indoor recirculation mode.

Results Of the 128 participants, 15 (11.7%) were men, 113 (88.3%) were women, and the mean age was 58.6 years. On bus 2, 24 of the 68 individuals (35.3% [including the index patient]) received a diagnosis of COVID-19 after the event. Meanwhile, none of the 60 individuals in bus 1 were infected. Among the other 172 individuals at the worship event, 7 (4.1%) subsequently received a COVID-19 diagnosis. Individuals in bus 2 had a 34.3% (95% CI, 24.1%-46.3%) higher risk of getting COVID-19 compared with those in bus 1 and were 11.4 (95% CI, 5.1-25.4) times more likely to have COVID-19 compared with all other individuals attending the worship event. Within bus 2, individuals in high-risk zones had moderately, but nonsignificantly, higher risk for COVID-19 compared with those in the low-risk zones. The absence of a significantly increased risk in the part of the bus closer to the index case suggested that airborne spread of the virus may at least partially explain the markedly high attack rate observed.

None of the event participants wore mask or any prevention during the rides and worshiping on January 19, 2020, as there was no public awareness of COVID-19 in the city at that time.

So if there is an infected person in your proximity, there is more chance that you will NOT be infected than that you will be.

Adding to this that is more chance that this person you met was NOT infected than it was, you have a very slight chance of being infected yourself.

Even if you test positive for Covid, the statistics still say that you have more chance that you will NOT suffer great consequences (probably any) than you will.

Get tested if you will (especially if you have an underlying condition) and/or isolate yourself for prevention, but there is certainly no need to panic.

 

[kenny1999]

If you are looking for some numbers, you may like this case study based on the original strain of Covid:
So if there is an infected person in your proximity, there is more chance that you will NOT be infected than that you will be.

Adding to this that is more chance that this person you met was NOT infected than it was, you have a very slight chance of being infected yourself.

Even if you test positive for Covid, the statistics still say that you have more chance that you will NOT suffer great consequences (probably any) than you will.

Get tested if you will (especially if you have an underlying condition) and/or isolate yourself for prevention, but there is certainly no need to panic.

I heard that one could be infected with the virus but he doesn't get sick or have any symptoms at the end of the day. Is that possible? What is the principle behind?

 

[jack action]

• Some 'lucky few' have 'resistance' or immunity to SARS-Cov-2 (Alpha?)
• Mechanism of asymptomatic Covid infections

 

[bhobba]

As to your original question, yes, you can get Covid - but I would judge the odds as low. Even if you were not coughed on, you could still get it - the odds are just lower.

Long term, however, many immunologists think it is inevitable everyone will eventually get infected due to the transmissibility of Delta.


I am not an immunologist and use my training in Stats and Mathematical Modelling to understand papers on the subject. The good news is IMHO it is not inevitable - the third dose being used in Isreal has had some stunning success:


In fact, in Israel, you are not considered vaccinated until you have had 3 doses. If, as it says above, after 3 doses, it is 95% effective against getting Delta, then doing a back of the envelope calculation assuming an R0 of about 7 for Delta and 90% vaccinated, we have an R of 7*(1-.9*.95) = 1.015. Such a low R is not hard to control with other measures such as mask-wearing etc. And if you can get it to 95%, then R = .69 and it will die out. But both 90% and especially 95% are hard to achieve - but at the moment, it seems to be what is needed. Not impossible, mind you - here in Aus, there is 94% take-up of the Whooping Cough vaccine. But to achieve that, Aus had to introduce no-jab, no-pay:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Jab,_No_Pay

Do I think we should introduce No-Jab, No-Pay for Covid? Yes. But in the end, the democratic process will decide.

Note these are straightforward calculations - much more sophisticated models are available. Here in Aus, with two doses and 80% vaccinated, modelling done by the Doherty Institute show it will be controllable with simple measures. So there is hope. Fingers crossed. But eventually, we all will need 3 Jabs, IMHO. In fact, Aus has already announced it once everyone has had two Jabs - it is thought better to get two jabs into everyone first.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Omega0]

Hey, from Germany: We have a quote now around 75% vaccinated as far as I know. Vaccinate yourself and things will go better, that is my opionion.

PS: The government does change now the rules. Not the number of infections per time will count but the number of persons who need the intensive care unit. This is due to the growing vaccination rate.

 

[bhobba]

Hey, from Germany: We have a quote now around 75% vaccinated as far as I know. Vaccinate yourself and things will go better, that is my opionion.

It's a no brainer - I know of no immunologist or even just a GP that does not say the same thing.

Thanks
Bill

 

[StevieTNZ]

It's a no brainer - I know of no immunologist or even just a GP that does not say the same thing.

Thanks
Bill

However, we had this GP in NZ - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/12...being-taken-very-seriously-by-medical-council

 

[bhobba]

However, we had this GP in NZ - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/12...being-taken-very-seriously-by-medical-council

There always seems to be at least one 'deviant'. Since it is the first I ever heard of, fortunately, they likely are rare.

Really, I am not a doctor but a mathematician, so I understand statistics. It is in total opposition to the statistical evidence.

Thanks
Bill

 

[hutchphd]

There is no reasonable rational argument against vaccination.
The severity of disease is universally much reduced although Delta is clearly more transmissible.
Do not perseverate about possible hypothetical exposure through various masks and get vaccinated.

.

 

[bhobba]

PS: The government does change now the rules. Not the number of infections per time will count but the number of persons who need the intensive care unit. This is due to the growing vaccination rate.

Just out of interest, once we reach 80%, it has been announced we will do the same. The real effort is and should be, to vaccinate, vaccinate and vaccinate some more. There is more that I could say, but it will be too far off-topic.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kyphysics]

People often talk of viral load (i.e., the # of virus particles present) and I'm wondering if there is any data on how much viral load is:

a.) needed to infect someone
b.) typical of someone talking, breathing, sneezing, etc.

E.g., Does a single wet sneeze have, say, 10...20x the viral load of some person who speaks a sentence or two a couple of feet away from me? I've never had an unmasked person cough or sneeze in my face, but I've had several talk to me pretty close.

 

[hutchphd]

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201105/dose-of-coronavirus-timing-matters-for-infection#1

 

[kyphysics]

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201105/dose-of-coronavirus-timing-matters-for-infection#1

Thanks - pretty interesting. That helps with answering a.).

Still wondering about b.)

 

[hutchphd]

I think speaking German would be worse than, say, French. Too many variables for (b)

 

[jim mcnamara]

How likely will I become infected?

Because Covid is becoming endemic there is a simple answer:
You will either become infected or you will get vaccinated. This will apply everyone everywhere.
Period the end.

Per: Gregory Poland with US-centric view, meant for people with some medical/biological background

 

[Evo]

How likely will I become infected?

Because Covid is becoming endemic there is a simple answer:
You will either become infected or you will get vaccinated. This will apply everyone everywhere.
Period the end.

Per: Gregory Poland with US-centric view, meant for people with some medical/biological background

Or you will get vaccinated AND infected, but the infection should be less severe.

I was supposedly infected with Covid back in the beginning, March of 2020, and now I have had both vaccination injections of Pfizer, and hoping for the third since I am in a high risk age group.

So infected, THEN vaccinated.

 

[jim mcnamara]

@Evo
Actually the video explains that once vaccinated, most infections are mild, deaths are few. It does not cover the reverse - I assume because of a limited population to study.