How many guesses would it require to correctly guess a 10 digit number?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the number of guesses required to correctly guess a 10-digit number, specifically focusing on numerical passwords. Participants explore both binary and decimal systems, considering the implications of different guessing strategies and the information received after each guess.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant suggests that for a binary case, ##2^{10}## guesses would be needed to guess a 10-digit number, while for a decimal number, they propose ##10^{10}## guesses.
  • Another participant questions the origin of the probability figure ##1/3628800## and its relevance to the guessing calculations.
  • There is a clarification that a regular 10-digit number cannot start with a zero, but a 10-digit password can.
  • Some participants note that the number of guesses required can depend on the type of feedback received after each guess, such as yes/no or higher/lower responses.
  • It is mentioned that in base b, the maximum number of guesses needed without additional information is ##b^{10}-1##, with the average being about half that number.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the calculations and assumptions regarding the number of guesses required, and there is no consensus on the correct approach or the origin of the probability figure mentioned.

Contextual Notes

There are unresolved questions regarding the assumptions made in the calculations, particularly concerning the definitions of the number types and the feedback mechanisms after guesses.

shivajikobardan
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TL;DR
Guesses required
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.I'm trying to find how'd you calculate the number of guesses required to correctly guess a 10 digit password made up of numbers only?
Binary or decimal both ok, I just want to learn how'd you calculate it.
I think the probability is ## 1/3628800 ##

take binary case:
For guessing the first number correctly, you'd require 2 guesses.
##2^{10}## guesses

Is this approach correct? ##10^{10}## guesses to guess 10 digit decimal number?
 
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That looks right to me. One thing to watch out for with the wording of the problem - a regular 10 digit number can't start, since it would just be a 9 digit number at that point. But a 10 digit password certainly could.
 
shivajikobardan said:
I think the probability is ## 1/3628800 ##
Where has this number come from?
 
shivajikobardan said:
Summary: Guesses required

Book link
.I'm trying to find how'd you calculate the number of guesses required to correctly guess a 10 digit password made up of numbers only?
Binary or decimal both ok, I just want to learn how'd you calculate it.
I think the probability is ## 1/3628800 ##
You lost me here. Where did this probability come from? It seems unrelated to ##2^{10}## or ##10^{10}##.
Are you interested in how many are required to know that you have guessed it in every case or how many guesses would you expect it to take?
 
This depends on the information you get after each guess. If you get a yes/no the answer is different from higher/lower, which is different from "higher by 1234:".

In base b, the number of guesses with no other information needed to know it is b^{10}-1. The average is about half that.
 
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Vanadium 50 said:
This depends on the information you get after each guess. If you get a yes/no the answer is different from higher/lower, which is different from "higher by 1234:".

In base b, the number of guesses with no other information needed to know it is b^{10}-1. The average is about half that.
To be clear, that is to make every guess possible so that you know that one of the guesses is right. But you don't know which guess is right until you are told.
 

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