I How strong is the justification for low probability extreme thermal fluctuations?

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I asked a question related to a table levitating but I am going to try to be specific about my question after one of the forum mentors stated I should make my question more specific (although I'm still not sure why one couldn't have asked if a table levitating is possible according to physics).

Specifically, I am interested in knowing how much justification we have for an extreme low probability thermal fluctuation that results in a "miraculous" event compared to, say, a dice roll. Does a low-probability dice roll carry the same level of experimental evidence or justification as a low-probability thermal fluctuation (assuming the probabilities are the same)? For this question, let's assume that the event we are considering is a marble statue of a human spontaneously moving its hand, for a moment in time.

Presumably, the chance of a marble statue spontaneously moving its hand would involve a lot of atoms suddenly moving in a particular direction. The probability of this would be extremely low. Let's call it P. Now, imagine a fair dice rolling on 6 many, many times in a row, such that the probability of this is also the same value P.

Is the experimental evidence that we have for establishing these probabilities the same for both events? I ask because let's assume that for some as of yet unknown reason, the state of particles corresponding to the marble statue spontaneously moving (which would be an extreme thermal fluctuation) was exactly 0. If so, from what I can gather, all the experiments that have been done to confirm statistical mechanics would still be just as correct. In other words, how do we know that the probability of states like this occurring is extremely minimal rather than 0? Can there be an experiment that would distinguish between these two? And more importantly, is the justification of assigning a minimal non zero probability to this kind of event on par with the justification we have for assigning the same probability to a dice rolling many times such that its probability was P?
 
I am not sure if this falls under classical physics or quantum physics or somewhere else (so feel free to put it in the right section), but is there any micro state of the universe one can think of which if evolved under the current laws of nature, inevitably results in outcomes such as a table levitating? That example is just a random one I decided to choose but I'm really asking about any event that would seem like a "miracle" to the ordinary person (i.e. any event that doesn't seem to...
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