How to calculate the probability of winning top prize of lottery?

AI Thread Summary
To calculate the probability of winning the top prize in a lottery where six numbers are drawn from a pool of 36 without replacement, one must consider that the order of the numbers does not matter. The initial calculation of 1/36 * 1/35 * 1/34 * 1/33 * 1/32 * 1/31 incorrectly assumes order is important. To correct this, the result must be divided by the number of permutations of the six numbers, which is 720. The accurate probability is determined by multiplying the probabilities of drawing the correct numbers in succession: 6/36 * 5/35 * 4/34 * 3/33 * 2/32 * 1/31, resulting in approximately 5.134 * 10^-7. Understanding these calculations is crucial for accurately assessing lottery odds.
kenny1999
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Just take a simple example, Among 1-36 numbers, 6 balls are randomly drawn without putting back the ball. Only if you match the six numbers exactly you win the top prize, order doesn't matter.

I think it should be 1/36 * 1/35 * 1/34 * 1/33 * 1/32 * 1/31, is it?

[Moderator's note: moved from a technical forum.]
 
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You have not accounted for "order doesn't matter". In your calculation, the order does matter. There are 6*5*4*3*2*1 = 720 ways to reorder what was drawn. To factor that in, multiply your answer by 720.
Another way to look at it is this:
The first draw would be a success if you got any of the 6 numbers: 6/36.
The second draw would be a success if you got any of the remaining 5 numbers: 5/35.
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The last draw would be a success if you got the one remaining number: 1/31.
That gives the answer: 6/36 * 5/35 * 4/34 * 3/33 * 2/32 * 1/31 = 5.134##*10^{-7}##
 
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