Are Evacuations Effective in the Face of Hurricane Matthew?

[jtbell]

It looks like Hurricane Matthew is going to run up the US east coast like a buzz-saw from Florida to South Carolina:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37571685

If you're curious about what a one-way expressway (motorway) looks like, check out the traffic cameras along route I-26 between Charleston and Columbia SC:

http://www.sc511.org/ (You might have to click on a few before you find one that responds.)

The eastbound lanes have been reversed so that all lanes now flow away from Charleston. This will continue until sometime tomorrow (Friday). As I write this, traffic actually looks rather light in the reversed lanes. This probably has to do with the fact that drivers can't exit anywhere along those lanes. If you enter them at I-526 in Charleston, you have to stay on them until I-77 just south of Columbia.

Fortunately, I'm far enough away from the coast (well past Columbia) that our weather forecast calls for only some rain showers and wind (max ~20 mph) from tonight through Saturday afternoon.

 

[Borg]

Buzz saw is the right word for it (the M's stand for Major Hurricane - > 110 MPH). I can only imagine the coastal damage that this will do. And then, next week the weakened storm looks like it may swing back for a second round.

 

[russ_watters]

The predicted track has slid west since yesterday...

 

[StatGuy2000]

I wonder how many PF members are seriously impacted by Hurricane Matthew (either those in the US or those in places like the Bahamas or Haiti). I wanted to send my best wishes to them on their difficult time.

 

[russ_watters]

The predicted track has slid west since yesterday...

...and strengthend. At 11:00 last night, the prediction was for it to peak at 115 kts tonight. Now it is predicted to peak at 125 kts.

 

[Kevin McHugh]

I'm about 30 miles west of Lake Okechobee. We are expecting gusts up to about 40 mph, and little rain. We're staying put.

 

[Kevin McHugh]

As with Charlie, the problem we need to watch out for is tornadoes.

 

[Astronuc]

Flooding is certainly an issue along the coast and along inland water ways. When the rain starts pouring down, stay put, and don't drive into water over roads, especially if it is flowing across the road.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Stay safe Floridians!

 

[Astronuc]

Stay safe Floridians!

And Georgians, Carolinians, and others in the eventual path.

Don't know if it will move along the coast all the way to Long Island, move inland, or move east out into the Atlantic.

The current 5-day forecast has it circling back through Tuesday. I take that to mean a lot of rain in Florida, Georgia and may S. Carolina.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/214535W5_NL_sm.gif

 

[Astronuc]

This article - Most Powerful Storm in a Decade Threatens East Coast, Largest Evacuation Since Sandy
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/a636869c-9cbf-3ab2-8aab-5397bb3cb9d1/ss_most-powerful-storm-in-a.html
has a map showing the storm hugging the coast to Long Island by Sunday. Seems to contradict the National Hurricane Center.

 

[russ_watters]

This article - Most Powerful Storm in a Decade Threatens East Coast, Largest Evacuation Since Sandy
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/a636869c-9cbf-3ab2-8aab-5397bb3cb9d1/ss_most-powerful-storm-in-a.html
has a map showing the storm hugging the coast to Long Island by Sunday. Seems to contradict the National Hurricane Center.

I'm guessing "the storm" in that graphic is Sandy.

 

[Borg]

I'm guessing "the storm" in that graphic is Sandy.

Sandy made a left hook straight into the coast.

 

[Borg]

Probably should evacuate before this.

 

[Astronuc]

Hurricane Matthew may cause $25-30 bln in insurance losses
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/hurricane-matthew-may-cause-25-131507442.html

I guess we'll find out next week.

Then there is Nicole to the east, and I wonder if Matthew and Nicole will merge.

 

[jtbell]

The hurricane actually made landfall in South Carolina, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, instead of staying off shore. But it's still moving parallel to the coast and is apparently expected to re-emerge over water, probably below hurricane strength by then.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/us/hurricane-matthew-florida/index.html

More than 150 miles inland, we had some wind and rain, probably less than an inch, yesterday and last night. The streets have already dried out except for occasional puddles.

 

[jim hardy]

Water at a Jacksonville marina got a little bit over the docks.

In the picture son sent there's still leaves on the trees, so they didn't get much wind.

 

[Astronuc]

Water gushed through the streets in downtown Charleston as Hurricane Matthew brought torrential rains and a storm surge to Georgia and South Carolina.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-matthew-sends-floodwaters-surging-125516186.html

Right now Matthew is off the coast of NC and is supposed to turn east then south down passed Bermuda. Nicole is south of Bermuda heading north.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents

It would appear both systems will interact.

 

[jtbell]

Eastern North Carolina has had major flooding as a result of Hurricane Matthew. 11 deaths confirmed so far. More than 1400 rescues of people stranded by high water, as far as 90 miles inland. Parts of the Interstate 95 expressway, a major route between the Northeast US and Florida, are closed.

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/state/article107372502.html

Yesterday (Sunday), I drove from upstate South Carolina to Asheville NC, in the western part of the state which was not affected by the storm. The weather was sunny, cool and a bit windy. My destination was a stamp show in a hotel on the outskirts of town. This is a twice-yearly event, running Saturday and Sunday, that usually features 10-12 dealers, filling two conference rooms. Yesterday there were three dealers in one half-empty conference room. The others had decided to stay home either because they were directly affected by the storm, or didn't want to risk traveling from other parts of the southeast (Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas) on Friday.

 

[Astronuc]

It looks like Matthew has dissipated with remnants heading NE. Nicole is forming and soon to be a hurricane, which will apparently stay out to sea and sweep northeast over Bermuda and probably catching the remnants of Matthew and heading into the North Atlantic.

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory says eight people have died after Hurricane Matthew smacked the state with torrential rains and authorities are searching for five people.

Four deaths were blamed on the storm in Florida, four in Georgia, and two in South Carolina.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/severe-flooding-north-carolina-hurricane-matthew-death-toll-climbs/

Rivers and creeks overflowed, driving people from their homes and trapping others as much as 100 miles inland. The unofficial rainfall totals were staggering: 18 inches in Wilmington, 14 inches in Fayetteville and 8 inches in Raleigh.

Area around Lumberton, NC, has significant flooding.
During a hurricane like this, one should shelter in place and not be on the roads.