- #36
kyphysics
- 676
- 436
Yeah, that's what that common Wall Street quote means. As in, high prices cure themselves, because less people eventually can buy.russ_watters said:Not sure what you mean by that/how it's connected to the graph.
Yeah, that's what that common Wall Street quote means. As in, high prices cure themselves, because less people eventually can buy.russ_watters said:Not sure what you mean by that/how it's connected to the graph.
Why did people buy/swap more houses during the pandemic? Was it because they had spare time to visit the houses for sale in person, as many of them are working from home; or was it because they realized the importance of a sweet and comfy home at which they were trapped?kyphysics said:View attachment 285863
Nothing to see here.
Lots of reasons, Leo Liu, but a few were:Leo Liu said:Why did people buy/swap more houses during the pandemic? Was it because they had spare time to visit the houses for sale in person, as many of them are working from home; or was it because they realized the importance of a sweet and comfy home at which they were trapped?
Restaurant owners really feeling it with inflation (on top of so many other issues)!In Seattle, Steve Hooper of Ethan Stowell Restaurants (How to Cook a Wolf, Anchovies & Olives, Tavolata) said seafood prices are "through the roof," with lobster up 50 percent, and other supply-chain snags are impacting business: He ordered stools for a new restaurant in March; they haven't arrived and the opening is delayed.
Jasmine Donovan, president of Dick's Drive-In Restaurants in Seattle, said she can't buy mustard right now. Or salt. Or berry topping for sundaes: "And everything costs more, if we're lucky enough to be able to buy it." Trey Lamont, the owner Jerk Shack in Seattle, said chicken prices have more than doubled and he can't get Hennessy or other cognacs.
All of these headaches are accentuated by the growing threat of the delta variant and renewed discussions about masking. The Washington Hospitality Association in Washington State calculated that the average restaurant lost $20,000 per month last year. This means the average owner is in debt by more than $100,000, and often that debt is personally guaranteed with their home or car.
That's a reasonable argument.Leo Liu said:However...
Inflation rates for both the US and China have been astonishing since the onset of the pandemic, as they are shown below. It is interesting to note that while the inflation rate of China reached its highest point in 2020, the data for the US topped in 2021. It is possibly because the federal government approved several stimulus package so that American people have more money to spend, whereas in China most people did't get any helpful financial aid and the government tried to stabilize the prices of commodities.
Soaring Cost of Food Is Forcing Families to Scrimp at the Dinner Table
Food prices in July were up 31% from same time last year.Inflation is slamming the freezer shut and leading households around the world to make sacrifices.
Whether at supermarkets, corner stores, or open-air markets, prices for food have been surging in much of the world, forcing families to make tough decisions about their diets. Meat is often the first to go, ceding space to less expensive proteins such as dairy, eggs, or beans. In some households, a glass of milk has become a luxury reserved only for children; fresh fruit, once deemed a necessity, is now a treat.
Central banks often disregard food and fuel inflation when setting policy because they’re the most volatile categories in the typical basket of consumer goods and services. “However, when ordinary people think about inflation, they don’t want to exclude food and fuels,” says Shang-Jin Wei, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School. Given the rise in inflation that average consumers are experiencing, “I’m predicting we are underestimating the chance that central banks will take more drastic measures than central banks themselves are predicting.”
kyphysics said:View attachment 287492
The housing market is so hot, a burnt-out Bay Area home is drawing cash bids above $850,000
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/646eccf1-528b-39ea-85ae-d63084fad363/the-housing-market-is-so-hot-.html
The lot, tear it down and rebuild...it's the property, not the house itself.kyphysics said:bidding war over this piece of trash!
Nah. It was definitely for the avante garde climate change victim art house. It's the new thing nowadays. Gotta get with the times, Bystander. Your house may be worth more burnt down.Bystander said:The lot, tear it down and rebuild...it's the property, not the house itself.
At the 2015 annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked which of his company’s holdings were best poised to thrive during a period of high inflation. Buffett’s response: The best business to own is one that doesn’t require continuous reinvestment because it becomes more and more expensive as the value of a dollar drops.
“The best businesses during inflation are the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently,” Buffett said, adding that “any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.”
Businesses like utilities or railroads “keep eating up more and more money” and aren’t as profitable, he explained. He prefers to own companies that people have a connection to.
Instead, “a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation,” Buffett said. For him, that includes brands like See’s Candy, which he’s owned since 1972.
Rents are rising most for those who sign new leases. But even people renewing them are getting sticker shock. Carmen Santiago, a dental assistant who was paying $1,479 a month for a two-bedroom apartment in Tampa, gave notice to her landlord in March after the rent jumped by $300.
The mother of two then racked up more than $1,000 on non-refundable application fees that she handed to about 10 landlords, sometimes getting in line without even seeing the properties first. A couple days before her lease expired in June, Santiago took a last-ditch drive. She visited five apartment complexes, all filled. The sixth, a vast complex with 22 buildings, had one unit available.
The two-bedroom cost more than $1,900 a month, including a mandatory cable bill -- more than Santiago would have paid if she renewed her old lease. She could hardly afford it but took it before it was gone.
kyphysics said:
China to US (West Coast) shipping costs are up 10x since pre-COVID.
Looks like some pretty solid kiln-hardened framing to me. Also I see savings in reduced demolition for the renovation.SOLD: $1 MILLION
Hell, there was even a bidding war over this piece of trash!
I just did a real estate search for Walnut Creek. It showed two listings under one million (one looks like a lot and the other is at $999,999). There are 14 listed under $1.25 million. There are 41 listings altogether. So $1 million really is the bottom of that market. Amazing to anyone not from Cali.russ_watters said:Looks like some pretty solid kiln-hardened framing to me. Also I see savings in reduced demolition for the renovation.
Landlords could be playing "catch up" too, in order to make up for lost payments/profit.Millions of renters are at risk of being evicted and the states and cities charged with providing emergency rental aid are unlikely to reach many in time, after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a national ban on most evictions Thursday night.
Landlords, with the exception of those in a handful of states and cities that have their own restrictions, will be able to go to court and obtain evictions for unpaid rent.
In most courts, eviction cases that have been delayed by judges for many months and can now begin to go forward again. In others, evictions that were approved and in the hands of marshals and sheriffs are ready to be executed. In states including Texas, some judges were allowing evictions to go forward, despite the ban.
I think you have it backwards; it wasn't a rent increase moratorium. Since people weren't paying and they couldn't be evicted, occupancy rates were high and will drop when evictions start up again. Lower occupancy would push prices back down.kyphysics said:Seems like rents could surge now that the Supreme Court has overturned the national eviction ban.
Landlords could be playing "catch up" too, in order to make up for lost payments/profit.
As the saying goes, the three most important factors in real estate are location, location, location.Bystander said:The lot, tear it down and rebuild...it's the property, not the house itself.
That's part of it, but I think you also have some inflationary forces too:russ_watters said:I think you have it backwards; it wasn't a rent increase moratorium. Since people weren't paying and they couldn't be evicted, occupancy rates were high and will drop when evictions start up again. Lower occupancy would push prices back down.
A lot of folks hit hard by the pandemic (esp., in big cities) moved "back home" with their parents/family. Some maybe moved into campers/vans/automobiles (out of desperation and/or a sense of travel adventure) for a while. As the economy has picked back up and as pandemic-related enhanced unemployment officially ends in September throughout the U.S. (GOP states have mostly already ended it - but Democratic states are still allowing it), that could mean people leaving their parents' homes, giving up their campers and moving out of cars, etc. to pick up new jobs and rent a place near those jobs. My thinking was this was one type of re/inflationary force.Throughout 2020, many renters were able to benefit from price reductions or even months of free rent as landlords struggled to fill empty units. But those concessions are more or less gone, and landlords are hiking up prices as Covid-19 restrictions end and housing demand spikes.
Housing costs were rising before Covid, but the Coronavirus exacerbated the problem: The national median rent has increased by 11.4% so far in 2021, compared with just 3.3% for the first six months of 2017, 2018 and 2019, according to a report from Apartment List, a rental listing site. Average rent growth this year is outpacing pre-pandemic levels in 98 of the nation’s 100 largest cities.
Rent is surging for a number of reasons, including more certainty in the job market and young people moving out on their own as pandemic restrictions end, says Nicole Bachaud, a market analyst at Zillow. Many people left cities and others moved in with family members in 2020, but that’s reversing now.
That might be true in the state where that particular landlord lives, but it's not true in general.kyphysics said:It's hard to say how many of these people there are, but there certainly were some who seemed able to pay rent, but chose to take advantage of the eviction ban to not pay and stay for free. The ERAP program designed to help landlords and tenants can only be initiated by the tenant first.
If you’re a landlord, you may think of rental assistance as help for renters. But right now, most federal emergency rental assistance programs accept applications from landlords. Where renters can apply, they often need your help to complete the process and make payments to you.
But, would the tenant also have to sign/apply at some point too - even if the landlord applies for help? If so, would that lead to the same issue?vela said:That might be true in the state where that particular landlord lives, but it's not true in general.
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/cor...m_medium=banner&utm_campaign=treasury_banner/
Here was a crazy recent story:The carved-out portion for landlords, known as the Emergency Rental Assistance, provides every state a minimum of $200 million with maximum amounts based on the proportion of the population in the state compared to the country’s total population. I’ve put together some common questions around this new stimulus package and resources to help you find answers. . .
The first requirement is that the beneficiary of the grant must be a renter. This will obviously be an easy requirement, but for clarity, the landlord can not apply for rent assistance without a tenant who meets the requirements. In fact, if a landlord does apply for the rent assistance on behalf of the tenant, then the tenant must co-sign the application. A landlord, however, can apply for their own rent assistance in the event they are also a tenant and meet the requirements.
These same property owners, many who continue to work with renters to help them get rent relief, have been frustrated they cannot remove tenants who are unwilling to apply for rental assistance.
For those reasons, a few landlords are actually paying their tenants to leave. Some say they have no wish to keep renting to tenants who have repeatedly shown them that they cannot or will not pay.
“[If] I'm going to evict somebody, but they're not going to be evicted until January next year. And it's going to cost me 3,000 bucks to do that,” First Guardian’s Getty said.
“Would I not be better off just offering three or $4,000 to that tenant and directly bypass the attorney, the eviction process and get them the heck out,” he added.
Must be nice to own property.U.S. homes prices surged 19.7% in July, once again posting the biggest jump in more than 30 years.
The record gain in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of property values nationwide followed a 18.7% jump in June and was the 14th straight month of accelerating price increases.
Get in as early as you can. I know it isn't easy.kyphysics said:Must be nice to own property.
That article does a really poor job of making it clear those are year-over-year, not monthly changes.kyphysics said:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-another-record-for-hot-market?srnd=premium
Must be nice to own property.