Is Stock Market Price Predictable?

[tronter]

Do you think that the future price of an asset, such as a stock or future is predictable to a certain degree? Or do they behave randomly (i.e random walk)?

 

[Ki Man]

Ebay goes up and down in 3 month cycles, apple does the same sort of trend but it goes up steadily, just more or less gains at certain times of the year. google is in a straight line up.

Each stock is independent and you need to remember, its not just a number that randomly moves, its the output of a company that can do just about anything with its money, good or bad

 

[Danger]

Going by your name, I'm going to guess that you are a resident of Hogtown and are therefore referring to the TSE. Regardless, I don't have an answer. You can predict some things with some reasonable degree of certainty, or you can listen to the experts and buy Bre-Ex instead. It's a crapshoot, but with somewhat better odds than a VLT.

 

[pivoxa15]

It is not possible to predict anything in the real world with certainty. So all predictions have their margins of error. Stocks tend to have relatively high margins of error.

 

[Ki Man]

when you invest, you need to remember that on the other side of that stock ticker is a group of people, each individually motivated for different reasons and being order ed around by managers, potentially good or bad. People mess up, we pull through, stuff happens. my best advice is do your research first. get soem practice in even at einvesting's website if you want

 

[tronter]

yes but I am also talking about futures Ki Man. Do you know what futures are? Have you studied financial math?

 

[Zanket]

Do you think that the future price of an asset, such as a stock or future is predictable to a certain degree? Or do they behave randomly (i.e random walk)?

I spent a few years writing software to predict future price movements. It shows that stock price movements are predictable at least one day in advance, to a degree at which only a brokerage house could (greatly) profit. The transaction costs must be very small (like 0.05%) to profit. I didn't test futures.