Real estate seems like a stupid investment vehicle

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    Stupid Vehicle
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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the comparative merits and drawbacks of real estate versus stock market investments. Participants explore various aspects of investment returns, market volatility, and the intrinsic value of real estate as an asset class.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants argue that real estate investments yield lower returns compared to stocks, citing potential appreciation rates and liquidity advantages of stocks.
  • Others suggest that real estate can be a stable investment, especially during economic downturns, as it provides a tangible asset that can be lived in.
  • One participant questions the feasibility of achieving extremely high returns in the stock market, pointing out historical performance averages and the risks involved.
  • There is a discussion about the role of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in diversifying portfolios, with some noting their volatility compared to traditional stock indexes.
  • Clarifications are made regarding the terminology used to describe price changes in real estate, with some participants discussing the implications of phrases like "going up 1x."
  • One participant humorously references the adage about land scarcity, suggesting a long-term value in real estate.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the value and performance of real estate versus stocks, with no clear consensus reached. Some favor stocks for their potential high returns, while others advocate for the stability and utility of real estate investments.

Contextual Notes

Discussions include varying assumptions about market conditions, investment strategies, and the definitions of investment returns, which may affect the perspectives shared.

SlurrerOfSpeech
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In the hottest of hot real estate markets you may see a house price go up 1x over 5 years and the owner may be able to capture 0.75x of that (after we subtract costs of property taxes, remodels, HOA dues, etc.). On the other hand, during a Bull Market in stocks there is the potential to for your holdings to appreciate 3x, 5x, 10x, 20x, 100x, etc., in completely liquid assets with no holding costs. Furthermore, if you own dividend-paying stocks then you make money even if there's a Bear Market, whereas in a sinking real estate market you start losing money because you can't rent the house for more than the mortgage costs.
 
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On average, the stock market will not go up that much even in a bull market. You can invest in real estate through a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) indexed fund. REITs were very hot a few years ago. They may be over priced now. Some people like to include some REIT investments in a diversified portfolio because they can soften the swings of the stock market. A REIT indexed fund tends to have more volatility than the S&P 500, but tend to be uncorrelated with it.
 
SlurrerOfSpeech said:
a house price go up 1x

Going up 1 times means not changing value at all.
 
Borek said:
Going up 1 times means not changing value at all.

I originally was going to write "going up 2x" to mean doubling, but I thought that would be misinterpreted as tripling.
 
SlurrerOfSpeech said:
On the other hand, during a Bull Market in stocks there is the potential to for your holdings to appreciate 3x, 5x, 10x, 20x, 100x, etc.,
Nonsense. When has a stock market ever even gone up 200%, much less 9900% in 5 years? ...only once I can see: the Nasdaq, from 1995-2000 went up 625%...before losing almost all of the gains in the next 3 years. What is more typical of the broader market indexes is about 8% per year.

What's nice about real estate is that if the economy tanks you can still live in your investment. Companies don't even print stock certificates anymore for you to tape together to use as a blanket if the market crashes.
 
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100x increase? I'm guessing that ia for an individual stock.You can find occurances of this in historical charts. But to try to invest in something that will get that kind of performance is extremely difficult and rare.
 
"Buy land, they've stopped making it."
 
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Clearly the OP has shown that any investment that doesn't return 100x your money is, to use his word, stupid.
 
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