ISS Toolbag visible with the naked eye now

[Count Iblis]

http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=33442&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

It is losing height quite rapidly now, more than a kilometer per day.

 

[ideasrule]

Saw it with a telescope; it was magnitude 8.6, but appeared remarkably bright. The Heavens-Above prediction was about 7 arcminutes off in position and 20 seconds off in time.

 

[Count Iblis]

It's a few days before re-entry now:

http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=33442&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

It is losing height at a rate of about 10 km per day and when it comes below 170 km it will lose that amount of height every hour.

 

[Soolamen]

It's a few days before re-entry now:

http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=33442&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

It is losing height at a rate of about 10 km per day and when it comes below 170 km it will lose that amount of height every hour.

Exactly where do you get the number 10 for kilometers rate of fall per day? I have recorded the numbers almost daily since last November and made a graph recently. Even now it is falling at about 4 km per day. I have read that 200 km is a height where it will decay rapidly and you may be right that 170 km could be the end. Anyhow it should be soon.

 

[Count Iblis]

Yes, I was wrong by about a factor 2. I think the Heavens-Above website a few days ago was a bit behind updating the height, skipping one day, giving the false impression that the descent rate had increased a lot.

 

[Count Iblis]

The toolbag has dropped in the Pacific. Had it dropped just a little later, it would have been visible over Mexico and Texas.