ISS Toolbag visible with the naked eye now

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the visibility and descent rate of a toolbag from the International Space Station (ISS), focusing on its impending re-entry and the discrepancies in height loss predictions. Participants share observations and data related to the toolbag's visibility and descent characteristics.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant notes that the toolbag is losing height rapidly, estimating a rate of more than a kilometer per day.
  • Another participant observed the toolbag through a telescope, reporting a magnitude of 8.6 and commenting on its brightness, while also noting discrepancies in position and timing predictions from Heavens-Above.
  • A participant claims the toolbag is losing height at about 10 km per day and suggests that below 170 km, the descent rate will increase significantly.
  • Another participant challenges the 10 km per day claim, stating their own observations indicate a descent rate of about 4 km per day and referencing a threshold of 200 km for rapid decay.
  • One participant acknowledges their earlier miscalculation regarding the descent rate, attributing it to outdated information from the Heavens-Above website.
  • A participant mentions that the toolbag has fallen into the Pacific Ocean and speculates on its visibility had it fallen later.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the descent rate of the toolbag, with no consensus reached on the exact figures. Some agree on the toolbag's imminent re-entry, while others provide conflicting data regarding its height loss.

Contextual Notes

Discrepancies in reported descent rates and visibility predictions highlight potential limitations in data accuracy from tracking websites. Observational data varies among participants, indicating differing interpretations of the toolbag's descent characteristics.

Who May Find This Useful

Astronomy enthusiasts, space observation hobbyists, and individuals interested in satellite tracking may find this discussion relevant.

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Saw it with a telescope; it was magnitude 8.6, but appeared remarkably bright. The Heavens-Above prediction was about 7 arcminutes off in position and 20 seconds off in time.
 
Count Iblis said:
It's a few days before re-entry now:

http://heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=33442&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=CET

It is losing height at a rate of about 10 km per day and when it comes below 170 km it will lose that amount of height every hour.
Exactly where do you get the number 10 for kilometers rate of fall per day? I have recorded the numbers almost daily since last November and made a graph recently. Even now it is falling at about 4 km per day. I have read that 200 km is a height where it will decay rapidly and you may be right that 170 km could be the end. Anyhow it should be soon.
 
Yes, I was wrong by about a factor 2. I think the Heavens-Above website a few days ago was a bit behind updating the height, skipping one day, giving the false impression that the descent rate had increased a lot.
 
The toolbag has dropped in the Pacific. Had it dropped just a little later, it would have been visible over Mexico and Texas.
 

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