ITER at World Energy Congress: Will 500MW from 50MW be Achieved?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the ITER tokamak's goal of achieving 500MW output from a 50MW input, as presented at the World Energy Congress. Participants explore the feasibility of this goal, the implications of fusion energy, and the broader context of energy production technologies.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • One participant notes the significance of ITER's presence at the World Energy Congress, suggesting that it indicates serious engagement with conventional energy suppliers.
  • Another participant expresses optimism about the possibility of achieving the ITER goal, citing the dedication of thousands of scientists and technicians as a reason for belief in future success.
  • A different viewpoint emphasizes the complexity of fluid dynamics in plasma physics, suggesting that while ITER represents a straightforward approach to fusion, challenges remain in scaling engineering solutions.
  • Some participants propose that alternative fusion approaches, such as smaller budget "pulsed" systems, might achieve net return before ITER, mentioning General Fusion as a potentially promising candidate.
  • Concerns are raised about the plausibility of other fusion attempts that focus on improving efficiency rather than scaling existing demonstrated systems.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of optimism and skepticism regarding the feasibility of ITER's goals. While some believe in the project's potential for success, others highlight significant challenges and uncertainties, indicating that multiple competing views remain without consensus.

Contextual Notes

Discussions reflect varying assumptions about the technological readiness of fusion energy and the implications of different approaches to achieving net power. The complexity of fluid dynamics in plasma and the engineering challenges of scaling are acknowledged but not resolved.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in fusion energy, plasma physics, energy policy, and emerging technologies in energy production may find this discussion relevant.

Dr Lots-o'watts
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I got an opportunity to attend part of the World Energy Congress (going on presently), and found it interesting to find that among the presentation booths for major energy suppliers (including major fortune 500 oil companies, fission reactor manufacturers, grid services, solar, wind etc. and talks by CEO's of these companies), there was one for the ITER tokamak. I don't follow much plasma physics lately, but it's interesting to see these guys are serious to the point of playing along the conventional suppliers, and not just within the nuclear community.

First plasma predicted for 2018. Goal is 500MW from 50MW, for 5 minutes straight.

Do you believe this goal will be acheived? What's your view on the project's chances of success?
 
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I think it is possible. If it plainly wasn't possible at all, then the thousands upon thousands of scientists, technicians, and other people wouldn't be trying. Even if its not possible NOW, they must have some reason to believe that they are going to be successful in the future. We'll just have to wait and see.
 
Fluid dynamics is complicated, and now make it a fluid of charged particles to give it strong internal interactions and it gets even worse.

ITER represents, in my mind, the most "straightforward" approach to fusion. Basically, steady-state fusion. These have been extensively studied. It is, in an oversimplifying sense, just a matter of scale of engineering at this point. So yes, I consider claims of them eventually getting net return quite believable. I'll hope for this huge milestone before contemplating on the 10x's return you mentioned above.

I also consider it mildly possible that a smaller budget "pulsed" / non-steady state system could break the net-return barrier first. There are a couple companies trying, but most aren't sharing much information. The most likely of these in my opinion, if one actually does succeed, would be http://www.generalfusion.com/ . They are approaching everything quite methodically, and already have a scaled down version that succeeded in demonstrating fusion. So in some sense, they too are trying to scale up the size. Many other net-power fusion attempts going on right now don't seem as plausible to me, because they are instead trying to "improve efficiency" of the actual process instead of trying to size scale up an existing/demonstrated one to the point of net power (some things just don't allow scaling of size to improve efficiency -- for example FocusFusion's attempt).
 

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