MLE estimator for mean always equal to the mean?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the mean of various probability distributions. Participants explore whether the MLE for the mean is always equal to the sample mean across all distributions, examining specific cases and providing examples of distributions where this may not hold true.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant notes that for Gaussian, Poisson, and Bernoulli distributions, the MLE for the mean equals the sample mean and questions if this is true for all distributions.
  • Another participant suggests testing the uniform distribution as a potential counterexample.
  • A different participant introduces a family of discrete densities and presents a specific case with repeated samples, implying a need for further exploration of MLE properties.
  • One participant identifies the Cauchy distribution as an example where the mean is undefined, indicating that the sample mean does not have meaningful interpretation in this case.
  • Another participant mentions the Laplace distribution, stating that its MLE based on a sample is the median rather than the mean, highlighting a difference in behavior compared to other distributions.
  • A later reply discusses the Cauchy distribution in more detail, noting that while the parameter mu represents the center of symmetry, the distribution lacks a defined expectation value.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on whether the MLE for the mean is always equal to the sample mean, with examples provided that suggest this is not the case for all distributions. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the generality of the claim.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight limitations in certain distributions, such as the Cauchy distribution, where the mean and variance are undefined. There is also mention of local maxima in the context of MLE, suggesting complexities in determining the best estimator.

Bipolarity
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Suppose you have a distribution ##p(x, \mu)##.
You take a sample of n points ## (x_{1}...x_{n})## from independent and identical distributions of ##p(x, \mu)##.

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the mean ## \mu ## is the value of ## \mu ## that maximizes the joint distribution ## \prod^{n}_{i = 1} p(x_{i},\mu) ##. It is easy to find using calculus.

The sample mean is simply ## \frac{(x_{1}+x_{2}+...+x_{n})}{n} ##.
It turns out that for Gaussian, Poisson, and Bernoulli distributions, the MLE estimator for the mean equals the sample mean. I was curious if this is the case for ALL distributions? If so, how would I prove this? If not, what is one distribution for which this isn't the case?

Thanks!

BiP
 
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I would start by trying some stuff with the uniform distribution.
 
Consider a family of discrete densities defined by a parameter N that have the form p(X=N) = 0.5 p(X = N+1)= 0.5.

Suppose we take 3 independent samples from such a distribution and get {2,2,2}.
 
Bipolarity said:
Suppose you have a distribution ##p(x, \mu)##.
You take a sample of n points ## (x_{1}...x_{n})## from independent and identical distributions of ##p(x, \mu)##.

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the mean ## \mu ## is the value of ## \mu ## that maximizes the joint distribution ## \prod^{n}_{i = 1} p(x_{i},\mu) ##. It is easy to find using calculus.

The sample mean is simply ## \frac{(x_{1}+x_{2}+...+x_{n})}{n} ##.
It turns out that for Gaussian, Poisson, and Bernoulli distributions, the MLE estimator for the mean equals the sample mean. I was curious if this is the case for ALL distributions? If so, how would I prove this? If not, what is one distribution for which this isn't the case?

Thanks!

BiP
You have noticed something special about so-called "exponential families". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_family Many famous families of distributions are exponential families but there are also plenty of famous families of distributions which aren't.
 
Bipolarity said:
I was curious if this is the case for ALL distributions?
Consider the distribution with pdf given by ##\frac 1 {\pi(1+x^2)}## for ##x \in \mathbb R##. This is the Cauchy distribution. Given a finite sample drawn from this distribution, you certainly can calculate ##\frac{\sum x_i} n##, but this has no meaning because this distribution does not have a mean. This is a pathological distribution. The mean and variance are undefined (do the integrals).
 
My example would be the Laplace distribution aka double exponential (warning: there are more distributions with the same name) with pdf given by exp(-|x - mu|)/2. The mean is well-defined and it's mu. The mle based on a sample of size n is the median (the middle observation if n is odd, and anything between the two middle observations if n is even).

To bring the Cauchy distribution into the story, we should make it a one-parameter distribution with pdf proportional to 1 /(1 + (x - mu)^2). Now we have a family of distributions depending on mu. The parameter mu is the centre of symmetry of these distributions but indeed they do not have an expectation value (nor a variance). But the mle, based on a sample of size n from this distribution, is for large n the best you can possibly do. You must look out for local maxima then. There is a theorem that for large n there will be one "good" global maximum of the likelihood, and a Poisson (1) distributed number of "bad" local maxima.
 

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