NewScientist: Most scientific papers are probably wrong

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SUMMARY

According to a recent analysis published by NewScientist, most scientific research papers are likely incorrect, with less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen paper are true. This conclusion raises significant concerns, particularly in the social sciences, where methodological flaws are prevalent. The discussion highlights the implications of these findings, suggesting a paradox where the assumption of correctness in the new paper complicates the interpretation of its conclusions. Participants express skepticism and humor regarding the reliability of experimental data, emphasizing the need for rigorous validation in scientific research.

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  • Understanding of statistical methods in scientific research
  • Familiarity with experimental design principles
  • Knowledge of peer review processes in academia
  • Awareness of common biases in social sciences research
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the impact of statistical significance on scientific validity
  • Explore best practices for experimental design in research
  • Investigate the peer review process and its limitations
  • Learn about common biases and their effects on research outcomes
USEFUL FOR

Researchers, academic professionals, and students in the sciences, particularly those involved in experimental design and statistical analysis, will benefit from this discussion on the reliability of scientific papers.

Telos
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NewScientist: "Most scientific papers are probably wrong"

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?
 
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Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary! :biggrin:
 
Ivan Seeking said:
Somewhere out there, there is a paper that uses figures on the strength of a certain dental material that were obtained by me in my garage. I find that to be rather scary! :biggrin:

:mad: :mad: :mad: And I built my garage with that dental material!
 
Pengwuino said:
:mad: :mad: :mad: And I built my garage with that dental material!

As long as you don't bite it you'll be fine. :biggrin:
 
mmm... that might be hard. I didn't have a lot of plaster... so i used cookie dough.
 
Telos said:
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7915

Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

This is no surprise to me if we are considering papers in the social sciences. But I wonder what those of you in the other sciences think about this?
This result was obtained in a scientific research paper. The results of scientific research papers have a greater than 50% chance of being wrong. Therefore, there is a greater than 50% chance that the conclusion is wrong. This implies that there is actually not a greater than 50% chance that it is wrong. Since it is probably not wrong, then the conslusion is probably true, which means it is probably wrong... :confused:
 
Yeah, emphasis on the "assuming that the new paper is itself correct" in the original article.
 

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