Number of intelligent civilizations over the history of the galaxy

[madman143]

If I suppose number of civilizations at the present time (ignoring light travel time) is 10^-4. (drake equation) Where the civilizations lifetime is 1000 years.
Then over the history of the galaxy,
Number of civilizations over the galactic history=N* Galactic lifeitme (10¹⁰)/ Lifetime of civilization (1000yrs)
Then total number of civilization in the history of the galaxy = 1000

Is the above calculation correct?
Please help. Urgent.

 

[qraal]

If I suppose number of civilizations at the present time (ignoring light travel time) is 10^-4. (drake equation) Where the civilizations lifetime is 1000 years.
Then over the history of the galaxy,
Number of civilizations over the galactic history=N* Galactic lifeitme (10¹⁰)/ Lifetime of civilization (1000yrs)
Then total number of civilization in the history of the galaxy = 1000

Is the above calculation correct?
Please help. Urgent.

You tell me. No one really knows what values to enter for most of the Drake equation, let alone lifetimes.

 

[Chronos]

The lifetime of an intelligent civilization is possibly the most diificult part of the drake equation to handicap. I assume it to be the time after the invention of radio communication, given the near impossibility of detection prior to that time. In that case, 1000 years may be wildly optimistic. We humans have not even made it 200 years. Personally, I think the odds are very good we may be the only radio capable civilization currently inhabiting our galaxy. On the other hand, I think there is a high probability of far more advanced civilizations in the galaxy. I am less optimistic about the prospects any alien intelligence has solved the problems of interstellar travel.