Number of intelligent civilizations over the history of the galaxy

In summary, the conversation discusses the Drake equation and the calculation for the total number of civilizations in the history of the galaxy. The equation takes into account the current number of civilizations, their lifetime, and the overall lifetime of the galaxy. However, there is uncertainty around the values to enter for the equation, particularly the lifetime of an intelligent civilization. The speaker believes that it may be difficult for a civilization to last for 1000 years, and there is a possibility that we may be the only intelligent civilization in our galaxy. While there may be more advanced civilizations, it is unlikely that any have solved the challenges of interstellar travel.
  • #1
madman143
11
0
If I suppose number of civilizations at the present time (ignoring light travel time) is 10-4. (drake equation) Where the civilizations lifetime is 1000 years.
Then over the history of the galaxy,
Number of civilizations over the galactic history=N* Galactic lifeitme (1010)/ Lifetime of civilization (1000yrs)
Then total number of civilization in the history of the galaxy = 1000

Is the above calculation correct?
Please help. Urgent.
 
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  • #2
madman143 said:
If I suppose number of civilizations at the present time (ignoring light travel time) is 10-4. (drake equation) Where the civilizations lifetime is 1000 years.
Then over the history of the galaxy,
Number of civilizations over the galactic history=N* Galactic lifeitme (1010)/ Lifetime of civilization (1000yrs)
Then total number of civilization in the history of the galaxy = 1000

Is the above calculation correct?
Please help. Urgent.

You tell me. No one really knows what values to enter for most of the Drake equation, let alone lifetimes.
 
  • #3
The lifetime of an intelligent civilization is possibly the most diificult part of the drake equation to handicap. I assume it to be the time after the invention of radio communication, given the near impossibility of detection prior to that time. In that case, 1000 years may be wildly optimistic. We humans have not even made it 200 years. Personally, I think the odds are very good we may be the only radio capable civilization currently inhabiting our galaxy. On the other hand, I think there is a high probability of far more advanced civilizations in the galaxy. I am less optimistic about the prospects any alien intelligence has solved the problems of interstellar travel.
 

1. What is the estimated number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy?

The estimated number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy is highly debated and constantly changing, as it is based on various factors and assumptions. However, some scientists estimate that there could be anywhere from a few hundred to a few million intelligent civilizations in our galaxy alone.

2. What factors are considered when estimating the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy?

Factors that are considered when estimating the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy include the number of habitable planets, the likelihood of life arising on those planets, and the likelihood of intelligent life evolving on those planets. Other factors such as the age of the galaxy and the habitability of different regions within it may also be taken into account.

3. How do scientists search for evidence of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy?

Scientists mainly search for evidence of intelligent civilizations through radio telescopes, which can detect radio signals that may indicate the presence of advanced civilizations. They also look for other potential signs such as changes in the atmospheres of exoplanets or anomalous objects in space.

4. Has any evidence of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy been found?

As of now, no conclusive evidence of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy has been found. Some signals and anomalies have been detected, but they have not been confirmed as being of extraterrestrial origin. However, with advancements in technology and continued research, scientists remain hopeful that evidence may be found in the future.

5. Are there any theories about why we haven't found evidence of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy?

One theory, known as the Fermi paradox, suggests that even though the universe is vast and likely contains many intelligent civilizations, we have not found any evidence of them because they are either too far away or have not yet developed the technology to communicate with us. Other theories propose that advanced civilizations may have intentionally avoided contact with other civilizations or have gone extinct before we could detect them.

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