wahoo q
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In my mind alleged creatures like nessie and sasquatch are totally removed from the paranormal and belong in the cryptozoology category.
Yep.Originally posted by wahoo q
In my mind alleged creatures like nessie and sasquatch are totally removed from the paranormal and belong in the cryptozoology category.
Maybe. But I have to invoke burden of proof again: Its not up to anyone to prove ESP doesn't exist (insert the obvious caveat about proving a negative), its up to those who claim ESP does exist to prove it. Scientifically. Until they do, their claims must be assumed to be false.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
This is not to be confused meaning that the claims are untrue. It only means that scienctists have not been smart enough to figure out better tests.
No, I would agree they are not paranormal. But they do fall into the same larger category of pseudoscience as ghosts and ESP.Yetis, Nessies, Champs, Sasquatches, Aliens, Gnomes, Pegasuses, Unicorns, Smurfs, could all very well exist in perfect accordance of scientific law, they are not paranormal.
Originally posted by russ_watters
Maybe. But I have to invoke burden of proof again: Its not up to anyone to prove ESP doesn't exist (insert the obvious caveat about proving a negative), its up to those who claim ESP does exist to prove it. Scientifically. Until they do, their claims must be assumed to be false.
In another thread you seemed to suggest that only a test that scientists consider unscientific could prove a certain ESP effect and complained about the catch-22 it put you in. I won't budge on that. If an ESP proponent is going to have any chance of convincing a scientific body of the existence of ESP, they will need a test that passes scientific scrutiny. Period. The scientific method cannot be weakened to allow what are now considered flawed tests to be used as real evidence.
You may be interested in a thread in the philosopy forum on the scientific method and why we use it.
No, I would agree they are not paranormal. But they do fall into the same larger category of pseudoscience as ghosts and ESP.
You have inadvertantly created a strawman. The underlined part is the strawman.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
This however is not a declaration of truth. It is an artificial construct to define the accepted standards of science. To imply that something that can't be tested can't be or is not true is to make philosophy or even a religion of science. Science cannot be proven to be comprehensive - and even more the case without a TOE.
String Theory has a bit more credibility (i.e. Math and generally accepted laws to back it up), its not comparable to that of the paranormal. Dont try to put String Theory in the same boat with metaphysics.Note that we can't test String Theory either. Why don’t we put subject in the Philosophy Forum, or the S&D forum? Where's the evidence for String Theory? So far, it sounds like philosophy to me.
Another test:I have never suggested that we use an unscientific test to obtain scientific evidence. I argue that we may not have conceived tests that are proper for the task. Really this is the same as to say that most psychics are fake; I don't think this stuff can be done on demand, and I think the evidence would support this assertion. So, until we can conceive of a better test or measurement for transient and unpredictable experiences, or until we conceive a mechanism to explain claims of ESP, science can claim neither truth nor falseness. We can only say that no scientific evidence exists thus science can draw no conclusions.
Repeat for dramatic effect:Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. You know that!
"Evidence" of the paranormal comes in a few forms:The work of science is for scientist - not psychics. John Edwards and such, these people really do not interest me. Beyond these are the experiences of people everyday, all over the world, that seem to indicate that some kind of ESP does exist.
Pseudoscience is not a method. Pseudoscience is a word that means "theory or facts put down as scientific when they are clearly not scientific".Pseudoscience is any improper method of doing science; not a personal claim, and surely not honest investigation of these claims.
.Originally posted by Yahweh
You have inadvertantly created a strawman. The underlined part is the strawman.
If there is no evidence that a certain thing exists, we can assume that it exists for the purposes of hypothesis and experimentation (such as Quark Theory), but if repeated experimentation and/or observation fails to show evidence that the thing exists, we can be fairly certain that it just ain't there
One must be careful not to fall into the trap of thinking that because there is no evidence that something does not exist, that it might exist.
There are a few different ways people try to get around this:
1. You scientists are too narrow-minded
2. You scientists know you're wrong, you just won't admit it
3. You scientists wouldn't accept evidence even if it was shoved in your face
4. There is no evidence that would satisfy you scientists.
5. [Insert Conspiracy Theory Here]
6. Science hasnt come far enough to prove such-and-such
7. Science can't explain everything
Pseudoscience is not a method. Pseudoscience is a word that means "theory or facts put down as scientific when they are clearly not scientific".
noun: an activity resembling science but based on fallacious assumptions
I believe I've already explained that when you experiment for something, and nothing comes up, then its reasonable to say it doesn't exist. That make the method of "assuming that ESP does not exist" different from the process I embrace which is "demonstrating that ESP does not exist". You can't assume things exist when you demonstrate the falsity of the claim.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
Your argument assumes that ESP does not exist, therefore no evidence can ever be had for transient, random events.
I am aware that the JREF Organization perform 100s of tests for anything paranormal. The preliminary tests are set up and arranged by the people who are performing the tests themselves. The folk fail their own tests. A great deal more effort is involved in trying to prove the claim true, but it just doesn't happen. Of course, these are "ESP on demand" types, so it may not apply.I am not aware of any effort to test for random, transient, ESP events.
Finally, rejecting explanations that require belief in occult, supernatural or paranormal forces in favor of simpler and more plausible explanations is called applying Occam's razor. It is not the same as ad hoc hypothesizing. For example, let's say I catch you stealing a watch from a shop. You say you did not steal it. I ask you to empty your pockets. You agree and pull out a watch. I say, "Aha!, I was right. You stole the watch." You reply that you did not steal the watch, but you admit that it was not in your pocket when we went into the store. I ask you to explain how the watch got into your pocket and you say that you used telekinesis: you used your thoughts to transport the watch out of a glass case into your pocket. I ask you to repeat the act with another watch and you say "ok." Try as you will, however, you cannot make a watch magically appear in your pocket. You say that there is too much pressure on you to perform or that there are too many bad vibes in the air for you to work your powers. You have offered an ad hoc hypothesis to explain away what looks like a good refutation of your claim. My hypothesis that the watch is in your pocket because you stole it, is not an ad hoc hypothesis. I have chosen to believe a plausible explanation rather than an implausible one. Likewise, given the choice between believing that my headache went away of its own accord or that it went away because some nurse waved her hands over my hand while chanting a mantra, I will opt for the former every time.
It is always more reasonable to apply Occam's razor than to offer speculative ad hoc hypotheses just to maintain the possibility of something supernatural or paranormal.
From Testimonials:There is plenty of anecdotal evidence, but where no scientfic tests are yet possible. I don't call people liars because I can't think of a test.
Testimonials and vivid anecdotes are one of the most popular and convincing forms of evidence presented for beliefs in the transcendent, paranormal, and pseudoscientific. Nevertheless, testimonials and anecdotes in such matters are of little value in establishing the probability of the claims they are put forth to support. Sincere and vivid accounts of one’s encounter with an angel, an alien, a ghost, a Bigfoot, a child claiming to have lived before, purple auras around dying patients, a miraculous dowser, a levitating guru, or a psychic surgeon are of little value in establishing the reasonableness of believing in such matters. Such accounts are inherently subjective, inaccurate, unreliable, and biased. They are on par with televised accounts of satisfied customers of the latest weight loss program or the tastiness of margarine.
The testimonial of personal experience in paranormal or supernatural matters has no scientific value. If others cannot experience the same thing under the same conditions, then there will be no way to verify the experience. If there is no way to test the claims made, then there will be no way to tell if the experience was a delusion or was interpreted correctly. If others can experience the same thing, then it is possible to make a test of the testimonial and determine whether the claim based on it is worthy of belief.
Testimonials regarding paranormal experiences are scientifically worthless because selective thinking and self-deception must be controlled for.
...
Finally, it should be noted that testimonials are often used in many areas of life, including medical science, and that giving due consideration to such testimonials is considered wise, not foolish. A physician will use the testimonies of his or her patients to draw conclusions about certain medications or procedures. For example, a physician will take anecdotal evidence from a patient about a reaction to a new medication and use that information in deciding to adjust the prescribed dosage or to change the medication. This is quite reasonable. But the physician cannot be selective in listening to testimony, listening only to those claims that fit his or her own prejudices. To do so is to risk harming one’s patients. Nor should the average person be selective when listening to testimonials regarding some paranormal or occult experience.
... I don't believe I claimed you said any of those things...Funny, I never said any of these things, except that the last could be true.
I think its helpful to note that there is no such thing as "proof beyond any doubt". There is no such thing as "100% proof", however high degrees of certainty can be achieved so that we can say that something is "true" or "untrue". If didnt, we'd never be able to get on with our lives.Certainly we don't have a complete theory by which we may gauge what is and is not possible beyond any doubt.
Color doesn't exist (in the concrete sense).The rest of your reasoning excludes human experience completely. This may be fine for formal definitions, but that's all. It may have no practical value beyond that formalism.
Prove to a blind person that color exists.
By definition, its "Theoretical Physics".Until it can be tested, or at least offer the promise of such, its Philosophy; by definition.
I'm afraid I don't understand why my statements have no bearing on yours.well, actually it is this:
Claimed personal experiences are not pseudoscience; nor is the investigation of such claims. Your statements have no bearing on mine.
Making predictions that cannot yet be tested is one of the neatest things about theoretical physics. A great number of the predictions of Relativity and QM could not be tested until recently (and some still can't be). The fact that these predictions, once testable, verified the theories is one of the neatest aspects of science.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
Until it can be tested, or at least offer the promise of such, its Philosophy; by definition.
Ivan, a failed test is evidence and you know that! Ie, if a test for an effect fails enough times, you can draw a scientifically valid conclusion that the effect isn't there. Certainly, you can think up a new test, but if that yields no effect, then you have strengthened the body of evidence that suggests the effect isn't there. Sooner or later, you have to conclude that to a reasonable scientific burden of proof, the effect does not exist. The cold fusion debacle is a great example of some scientists accepting that reality while others clung to a false hope.Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. You know that!
Originally posted by Yahweh
I believe I've already explained that when you experiment for something, and nothing comes up, then its reasonable to say it doesn't exist. That make the method of "assuming that ESP does not exist" different from the process I embrace which is "demonstrating that ESP does not exist". You can't assume things exist when you demonstrate the falsity of the claim.
I am aware that the JREF Organization perform 100s of tests for anything paranormal. The preliminary tests are set up and arranged by the people who are performing the tests themselves. The folk fail their own tests. A great deal more effort is involved in trying to prove the claim true, but it just doesn't happen. Of course, these are "ESP on demand" types, so it may not apply.
To say "ESP doesn't occur on demand" is an ad hoc. From Skepdic.com - Ad hoc:
.. I don't believe I claimed you said any of those things...
I think its helpful to note that there is no such thing as "proof beyond any doubt". There is no such thing as "100% proof", however high degrees of certainty can be achieved so that we can say that something is "true" or "untrue". If didnt, we'd never be able to get on with our lives.
You are continually shifting the burden of proof, as well as shifting the integrity of is defined as "proof". Those are not good skills to maintain.
A blind person could never experience color. [simplified]When you are a baby and experiencing things, you brain wires itself to understand and comprehend those things. But if you never experience something like the sensation of color, the part of the brain which processes visual information (the Occipital Lobe) is underdeveloped, and will forever remain underdeveloped. (there are a few cases - Hellen Kellar for example - but the medical reasons beyond those are well understood and don't apply in this situation).[/simplified] So its quite meaningless to prove to a blind person that color exists when they have no concept of what it is.
And again, you are lumping "personal experience" as a form of establishing proof,
By definition, its "Theoretical Physics"
Philosophy does not mean "things which cannot be tested"
I'm afraid I don't understand why my statements have no bearing on yours.
Ivan, a failed test is evidence and you know that! Ie, if a test for an effect fails enough times, you can draw a scientifically valid conclusion that the effect isn't there.
No, I don't, but I once convinced my sister I was telepathic when I guessed her thoughts correctly 3 times in a row.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
By the way Russ, as I remember, you actually believe in ESP don't you?
I'm still not sure what a "transdimensional being" is, but in any case, I probably should have answered YES to the Loch Ness/other one, since its VERY broad. Ever hear of the megamouth shark? And maybe should have answered NO to the spirits one. I was probably linking that to the concept of a soul.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
I was thinking that in the "What do you believe" thread you had indicated otherwise. My mistake. However many of the rest of your beliefs still surprised me. Transdimensional beings?
Communication with God would be one way and would simply be a matter of his omniscience. If he knows everything he knows our thoughts - our prayers. ESP applies only to humans.How do you distinguish between communication to or from God through prayer, and ESP? Is there mortal to divine ESP, but no mortal to mortal ESP?
I of course can't be sure I didn't read her mind, but the guesses were pretty obvious - the first thing she was thinking was "you're full of ---." And luck (probability) isn't something to believe in or not, its a property of data.Also, how can you be sure that you didn’t read your sister’s mind? Were these guesses based on your familiarity with her, or do you believe in luck?
Originally posted by russ_watters
I'm still not sure what a "transdimensional being" is, but in any case, I probably should have answered YES to the Loch Ness/other one, since its VERY broad. Ever hear of the megamouth shark? And maybe should have answered NO to the spirits one. I was probably linking that to the concept of a soul.
For most of the others, be careful not to make any logical leaps: those categories are broad and open to interpretation. I believe in ET for example, but that doesn't mean I think he's been here. Indeed, I think odds are by the end of my lifetime we may prove he exists, but we won't ever have direct contact with him. And the first 5 can be loosely connected to just about any religion, but that again doesn't mean anyone's ever seen a demon or angel.
Maybe I'm a little more open minded than you think though.![]()
Communication with God would be one way and would simply be a matter of his omniscience. If he knows everything he knows our thoughts - our prayers. ESP applies only to humans. I of course can't be sure I didn't read her mind, but the guesses were pretty obvious - the first thing she was thinking was "you're full of ---." And luck (probability) isn't something to believe in or not, its a property of data.
Linky Its a rare, but contemporary species. 14 examples have been seen since discovery in 1976. Now, the poll question said "Loch Ness or other unidentified lake creatures." Pretty broad and the megamouth would fit if it were a fresh water fish. Its certainly possible that there are unknown species in some remote and deep lakes.Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
megamouth shark? Only in a fossilized format. Why?
I probably should have qualified it a lttle - I certainly do believe biblical accounts, but modern accounts, no. Too many people see what they want to see and the Virgin Mary is not going to make a cameo as a water spot on a building.your comment about angels surprises me. What about biblical encounters?
Also the basis for most of what I've seen of ESP (and my buddy with the gambling fixation). A lot of people lose a lot of money by convincing themselves they can defeat the math of probability.As for luck, I believe in perturbations from the norm. Whether or not these perturbations are random are questions of predestination and divine intervention.