Preparing for the Next Big CME: Detection and Mitigation Strategies

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the detection and mitigation strategies related to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their potential impacts on Earth, particularly on the electric grid and communication systems. Participants explore historical events, current preparedness, and personal protective measures against such solar phenomena.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant references an article discussing the disruptive power of CMEs and their potential effects on Earth.
  • Another participant notes that a significant consequence of a CME is the need for a full blackstart of the electric grid, citing the historical Carrington Event as a precedent.
  • A humorous suggestion is made about investing in the Pony Express as a means of communication during potential disruptions.
  • Concerns are raised regarding the limited availability of replacement transformers by power companies and the lengthy delivery times, with uncertainty expressed about the current state of this issue.
  • A link is provided that offers advice on protecting personal electronics from EMP and solar storms.
  • Further emphasis is placed on the supply chain issues that could exacerbate recovery efforts following a CME, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions.
  • A question is posed about the capabilities of facilities for early detection of CMEs, specifically inquiring about potential gaps in detection time that could affect warning periods.
  • Concerns are expressed regarding public preparedness for prolonged grid outages resulting from a CME.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of concerns and suggestions regarding CME preparedness, but there is no consensus on the effectiveness of current strategies or the state of infrastructure readiness. Multiple competing views on detection capabilities and personal protective measures are present.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight uncertainties regarding the current status of transformer availability and the implications of supply chain issues on recovery efforts. There are also unresolved questions about the detection capabilities of observatories and the implications for warning times.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to individuals concerned with solar activity, electrical infrastructure resilience, emergency preparedness, and personal electronics protection strategies.

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Yup. One consequence is a required full blackstart for the electric grid - after the shower is over. The last bad one, a direct X-level CME, was was in 1859. Nee the Carrington Event:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

GPS and comsat would take a major hit.
 
We should invest in the Pony Express.
 
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Some years ago I read that power companies keep only a few replacement transformers like the ones in the substations and that it took about six months to deliver a new transformer. I do not know if that is still true.
 
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gleem said:
Some years ago I read that power companies keep only a few replacement transformers like the ones in the substations and that it took about six months to deliver a new transformer. I do not know if that is still true.
Given the current supply chain issues, I imagine there will be major problems in getting things back up Especially with the recent developments with China and the rest of the world.
 
Are there any other facilities besides the Inouye observatory capable of early detection of CMEs? If not is there thus a 12 hour period when it cannot detect CME activity? If true the 18 hrs warning drops to 6 hours.
I seems to me that loosing a substantial part of the grid for more that a few days amount of time will result in a situation that most people are ill prepared to deal with.
 

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