Probability Game: Find Chance of Landing on Each Spot 1-10

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around calculating the probability of landing on each spot in a game involving a die and coin flips, with specific rules regarding movement and hurdles. Participants explore the implications of these rules on the overall probability of completing the game.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant seeks assistance in determining the probability of landing on each of the ten spots in the game, noting the simplicity of the coin flip probability but expressing uncertainty about the die rolls.
  • Another participant questions the rules regarding what happens when a player rolls a 6, indicating a lack of clarity in the game's mechanics.
  • A different participant clarifies that rolling a 6 would result in landing on the sixth spot and emphasizes the need to understand the overall probability of finishing the game.
  • One participant presents a transition matrix for the game, suggesting that it can be used to calculate probabilities related to finishing the game, although they note that the hurdles have not been factored into their calculations.
  • The same participant provides specific probabilities for finishing the game within a certain number of turns, indicating that the probability of finishing in one turn is 0, while it increases with more turns.
  • There is an acknowledgment that the provided probabilities do not account for the hurdles, which are a key aspect of the game that has yet to be fully explained by the original poster.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express varying levels of understanding regarding the game's rules and the impact of hurdles on probability calculations. There is no consensus on how to incorporate the hurdles into the probability assessments, and the discussion remains unresolved regarding the complete mechanics of the game.

Contextual Notes

The discussion lacks clarity on the specific effects of the hurdles on gameplay and probability outcomes, which may influence the calculations proposed by participants. Additionally, the assumptions underlying the transition matrix and the probabilities provided are not fully detailed.

Data&Stuff
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I need help with finding the probability of the following game, I am making game for my data management class. The game consits of one die, so rolling anything between 1 and 6, there is 10 spots from the beginning to end and every 3 spots there is a hurdle where the player has to flip coin to determine if he crosses or not.
First question :
I want to know how can I find the probability of landing on each different spot from one to ten ? The probability of the coin is pretty simple, but I need help . please help me :(
 
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The rules of the game are not quite clear to me... For example: what happens if I roll a 6?
 
well there is just one dice, and there is 10 cases. so if you roll a 6 you land on the sixth spot ?
I just want to know how to find the probability of finishing the game and rolls.
 
Well, with the information you gave me, the transition matrix of your game is

\left(\begin{array}{cccccccccc}<br /> 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; 0 &amp; 0\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; 0\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6}\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{3}\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{2}\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{2}{3}\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; \frac{1}{6} &amp; \frac{5}{6}\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 1\\<br /> 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 0 &amp; 1\\<br /> \end{array}\right)

With that matrix, you can easily calculate that the probability that you finish the game is 1. But that is probably not the answer that you want... Maybe you should ask the question: what is the probability that I finish the game in 4 turns (or something likely).

The probability of finishing the game in 1 turn is 0
The probability of finishing the game in 2 turns is 0.27
The probability of finishing the game in 3 turns is 0.74
The probability of finishing the game in 4 turns is 0.94
The probability of finishing the game in 5 turns is 0.99
The probability of finishing the game in 6 turns is 0.99
The probability of finishing the game in 7 turns is 0.99
The probability of finishing the game in 8 turns is 0.99
The probability of finishing the game in 9 turns is 1


Of course, this probabilities are without the "hurdles" every 3 places. I did not factor them in because you did not yet explain what they do...
 

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