Dawguard said:
The problem is to create different misdemeanors or felonies for things like this: things that wouldn't be in a class that goes on the list.
Here is something that addresses that issue as well, and explains why it is difficult to predict reoffenders among sex offenders.
http://www.ipt-forensics.com/journal/volume10/j10_6.htm
I don't think the solution is to just change who goes on such a list. If someone is in a high risk category for reoffending, they should be treated the same as anyone else in the prison population with such risk, which is to either not be released, or to be released on an long parole period where they are supervised (i.e., to ensure they continue receiving treatment if treatment is necessary).
The site also provides more information about the one study that is often cited by those claiming sex offenders have high recidivism rates.
In contrast, Doren (1998), in a review of the research, reports that the true recidivism base rate over 25 years for extrafamilial sexual abusers is 52% and for rapists is 39%. Doren, who is involved with the sexual predator program at Mendota Mental Health Institute in Wisconsin, uses the recidivism rates from Prentky, Lee, Knight, and Cerce (1997). This is an extremely high risk sample. The Prentky, et al. sample consisted of 251 men who were committed to the Massachusetts Treatment Center for Sexually Dangerous Persons (MTC). Persons who were charged after being released from MTC and persons who were residents at MTC but were previously discharged, reoffended and were recommitted were included in the sample. Also, a charge, not a conviction, was used as the index of reoffense.
In addition, the figures of 39% and 52% are estimates from the survival analysis; the percentage of new offenses at the end of the study period (25 years) was 26% for rapists and 32% for child molesters. Doren maintains that the survival analysis provides a more accurate approximation of actual recidivism.
They also state this:
In general, the factors most strongly related to violent and sexual recidivism include having the characteristics of psychopathy as defined by a high PCL-R score (i.e. Hare, 1991, 1996, in press; Hart & Hare, in press; Rice, 1997), a history of criminal behavior, and being young. Rice and Harris (1997) report that the combination of psychopathy, measured by the PCL-R, and sexual deviancy, based on phallometric test results, resulted in the highest recidivism rate in their sample of sex offenders.
This particular study that they cite has been cited quite a bit. Gee, imagine that, psychopaths with a history of criminal behavior (i.e., prior convictions...they're already recidivists) are strongly related to recidivism among sexual offenders (okay, young psychopaths who already have a history of criminal behavior). That doesn't even mean they are only at risk for sexual offense recidivism, but violent offenses in general.
Here's another report that breaks down offenses by category and uses predominantly convictions (though, for a few regions, charges and convictions are used) to calculate recidivism rates.
http://ww2.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/200403-2_e.asp
Here's an interesting tidbit from AZ's Department of Corrections that measures recidivism rates by new convictions (i.e., return to prison), rather than just accusations (i.e., arrests).
Among the 1,649 sex offenders released from the Arizona prison system to the supervision of state parole officers, 70% eventually returned to prison with a new felony conviction for a sex crime, including 1.5% who committed a new sex crime while under state supervision.
http://www.azcorrections.gov/Recidivism.htm
When you do the math, that's 70% of 51.4% of prisoners released (the study was based on 3205 released prisoners, which included those released to supervision of parole officers, and those who were not). 70% of 1649 is 1154.3 (I'm guessing they rounded a bit

, so let's say 1154 reoffenders). That 1154 out of the total released and studied (3205) is about 36%.
So, help me understand this, because it's reported in the very next paragraph:
Furthermore, 0.5% returned with a new felony conviction for a sex crime within one year of release, 2.0% within two years, 3.4% within three years, 4.6% within four years, 5. 1 % within five years, 6. 0% within six years, 6.7% within seven years, 7. 1 % within eight years, 7.2% within nine years, 7.8% within ten years, 7.9% within eleven years, and 8.7% within twelve years.
The bold emphasis is mine. This is referring to the total number of released prisoners, but even assuming only those released on parole ever reoffend, the numbers aren't adding up. The prisoners were released over the years FY 1984-FY 1998. So, okay, there were an additional 14 years not accounted for among the earliest released in the study, but if only 8.7% have reoffended within 12 years, and that there's a fairly small increase each year (about 1%), how does that ever reach 36%, even assuming this is a very current study (I can't find the date of the study, so it may not be current!)? It looks like there's some sort of error in the calculations there (or have I missed something?). But, one could see how someone might wind up reading that information quickly and end up reporting that 70% of sex offenders reoffend on some other website that cites that report.