Should you call in this situation? (Hold'em card game)

[thetaobums]

You are in late position with $400 at a 1/2 NL Hold'em cash game with pocket jacks. The player under the gun (a loose passive player) bets out $12. Two players fold, then a very tight (all in or nothing) player in middle position goes all in for $75. Two more players fold. You call his $75. The remaining players fold to the original better who goes all in for $175 total. Mathematically, should you call him as well or should you fold?

 

[jwatts]

if you have a gambling problem, you should fold

 

[thetaobums]

probably call

You need to risk $100 more to call. You already have put in $75. 100/75 is 1.33, less than two to one. As long as it's less than two to one and you have a big chip lead, you should call.

 

[economicsnerd]

There's no reason how much you've put in should matter. All that matters is how much money is currently in the pot, how much each of you has on the table, and your beliefs about the other players' cards.

 

[blue_raver22]

I would approach this situation by analyzing the probabilities and expected value of each decision. In this scenario, we are facing a bet of $175 with a pot size of $562 (original bet of $12, plus $75 from the middle position player, plus your call of $75). This means that we need to win at least 31% of the time in order for calling to be a profitable decision.

To determine our chances of winning, we need to consider the range of hands that the original bettor could have. As a loose passive player, it is likely that they could have a wide range of hands, including weaker pairs, suited connectors, and even weaker aces. However, with two players already in the pot and a strong all-in raise from the middle position player, it is also possible that they could have a strong hand like pocket aces or kings.

In contrast, the tight player in middle position is likely to have a very strong hand, as they have gone all in for only $75. This means that we are most likely facing a strong hand from one of the players, and our pocket jacks are not likely to be the best hand.

Based on this analysis, I would recommend folding in this situation. While we may have the best hand against the original bettor's range, the strong all-in raise from the middle position player indicates that our chances of winning are not high enough to justify calling with only a 31% chance of winning. Folding in this situation would likely be the most scientifically sound decision.