Solving Airline Problem: Probability & Reservations

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SUMMARY

The discussion addresses the probability problem related to airline reservations, specifically focusing on accommodating passengers on a flight with a 90-seat capacity. It establishes that if 95 reservations are sold, the number of passengers who actually show up follows a binomial distribution, X~Bin(95,0.9). The probability of accommodating all passengers is calculated as P(X≤90). Additionally, the discussion seeks to determine the number of reservations, N, that should be sold to ensure a 99% accommodation probability, requiring the calculation of P(X≤90) for X~Bin(N,0.9).

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of binomial distribution, specifically X~Bin(n, p)
  • Knowledge of probability concepts, particularly independent events
  • Familiarity with statistical calculations for probabilities
  • Basic grasp of airline reservation systems and overbooking strategies
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the properties of binomial distributions in depth
  • Learn how to calculate cumulative probabilities using binomial distribution
  • Explore advanced probability concepts such as Poisson approximation for large N
  • Investigate real-world applications of probability in airline revenue management
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Mathematicians, statisticians, airline operations analysts, and anyone involved in optimizing reservation systems and understanding passenger behavior in the airline industry.

moltoor
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Ok, I was looking at some solutions and they don't seem correct. Here is the problem:
An airline knows that the probability a person holding a reservation on a certain flight will not appear is 10%. The plane holds 90 people.
a) If 95 reservations have been solf, find the prob. that the airline will be able o accommodate everyone appearing on the plane.
b) How many reservatiosn should be sold so that the ariline can accommodate everyone who appears for the flight 99% of the time?
 
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Is it not a homework problem?
Solution: Assume that arrival of a person with reservation is independent of other passengers.
Let X be the no. of passengers with reservation who finally turns up and N be the no. of reservations issued.
a) X~Bin(95,0.9). Find P(X<=90).
b) Find N such that P(X<=90)=0.99, when X~Bin(N,0.9).
 
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