Viewing the Northern Lights in Nov/Dec

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the visibility of the Northern Lights (auroras) during November and December, particularly in relation to solar activity, including sunspot counts and coronal holes. Participants explore factors influencing aurora visibility, including solar maximum cycles and geomagnetic storms.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Jack Martinelli suggests that heavy sunspot activity during the solar poles' flip may enhance aurora visibility, questioning how far south they might be seen.
  • Dave counters that the current solar maximum is lower than previous cycles, predicting that sunspot levels will not significantly increase and emphasizing that many auroras are caused by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) rather than sunspots alone.
  • Dave notes that while more sunspots can improve the chances of auroras, they do not guarantee increased activity, as many auroras occur independently of sunspot groups.
  • Dave shares personal experience, stating that he has observed auroras at lower latitudes, particularly in New Zealand, and mentions that auroras are rare in Sydney, Australia.
  • Dave adds that March and October are often the best months for aurora displays, correlating with equinox periods.
  • Another participant highlights the role of Coronal Holes in producing geomagnetic storms and auroras, referencing a specific alert for geomagnetic activity due to a coronal hole.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the relationship between sunspot activity and aurora visibility, with some suggesting that increased sunspots may not lead to significant auroral displays. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the extent of aurora visibility during the upcoming months.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge various factors influencing auroras, including solar activity, geographic location, and timing, but do not resolve the complexities of these interactions.

JackMartinelli
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There will be some heavy sunspot activity when the solar poles flip... should be some good aurora's...but how far south will they be viewable?

Regards,

Jack Martinelli
 
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Hi there Jack,

there may be ... but this solar max is much lower that the last 3 or 4 maximums
and the spot counts are low in comparison. I would predict that spot levels are not going to be too much different than they have been over recent months. There ISNT likely to be a huge burst in spot numbers just because of the solar magnetic pole flip
Lots of sunspots don't always mean lots of aurora ... ok ... more spots the better chance some of them may produce good flares that result in aurora. But, keep in mind that, the majority of aurora are caused by CME's Coronal Mass Ejections that are not always related to a particular sunspot group. some CME's are flare induced, many are not.

there's been a good number of aurorae even over the last several months.
large aurorae in the past have often been seen from low to mid latitudes, ~ 35North or South depending on what hemisphere you live in.
Where I used to live, at 46S ( SE South Island of New Zealand), I would see the majority of auroral displays, but it also helped that the south magnetic pole was closer to me than in say southern South America or southern Africa.
I'm now in Sydney, Australia area ~ 32S and aurora are almost never seen

Dave
 
Last edited:
Just an additional thought...

after years of aurora observing and photography, I have often found that March and October are among the best months for aurora displays ( the equinox periods)

Dave
 
Further to the previous comments...

Coronal Holes are also a significant source of streams of charged particles that can produce geomagnetic storms and aurora displays

Speaking of which, I have received an email alert today, 14th August, for active to minor storm conditions due to a coronal hole

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 13/20
ISSUED AT 0005UT/14 AUGUST 2013
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position and is
expected to impact the Earth during the latter half of 14 August
and into 15 August. There is the chance of Minor storm periods
at high latitudes during this interval.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 14-15 AUGUST 2013

cheers
Dave
 

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