What does this mean? (Dynamic forces in modelling)

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the interpretation of "dynamic forces" in the context of mathematical modeling, specifically regarding their impact on the accuracy of models. Participants explore the implications of external factors that may not be accounted for within a model, particularly in relation to a study on crime influenced by economic deprivation.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Conceptual clarification, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant questions whether "dynamic forces" refers to external factors affecting the dependent variable that are not included in the model.
  • Another participant suggests that the term may relate to models constructed using a quasi-static approximation, where dynamic effects are ignored, leading to discrepancies between the model and reality.
  • A further contribution discusses a specific study on crime, indicating that "neighbourhood effects" were considered a dynamic force impacting crime rates, which were not included in the analysis.
  • There is a suggestion that ignored factors should ideally be small for the model to remain valid, implying concerns about the significance of omitted variables.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express varying interpretations of "dynamic forces," with some agreeing that it relates to omitted influential factors, while others emphasize the potential for these factors to significantly affect model accuracy. The discussion remains unresolved regarding a definitive interpretation of the term.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the lack of specific definitions for "dynamic forces" and the potential variability in how different models account for external influences. The discussion does not resolve the implications of these factors on model validity.

davemk
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Hi, hopefully this is a simple question and easily answered.

I've been doing some reading on the subject of mathematical modelling and examples of modelling reports. In one report, the failings of the model are put down to "dynamic forces". I've taken this to mean that there are external factors affecting the dependent variable that are not contained within the model. Am I right?

Sorry, I know it's probably a stupid question but just wanted clarification!

Cheers.Dave.
 
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davemk said:
Hi, hopefully this is a simple question and easily answered.

I've been doing some reading on the subject of mathematical modelling and examples of modelling reports. In one report, the failings of the model are put down to "dynamic forces". I've taken this to mean that there are external factors affecting the dependent variable that are not contained within the model. Am I right?

Sorry, I know it's probably a stupid question but just wanted clarification!

Cheers.Dave.

Without more information it is difficult to say, but one possibility is that the model is constructed using a quasi-static approximation (things change but slowly so that dynamic effects can be ignored). Then you would expect the model to diverge from reality/experiment due to the ignored dynamic factors (forces).

CB
 
It was a study into causes of crime, using economic deprivation as an influence of crime (along with detection / conviction rates). It suggested that "neighbourhood effects" were a dynamic force affecting crime. As neighbourhood effects wasn't included in the analysis, I understood "dynamic forces" to mean influential factors that were not included in the analysis.
 
CB
davemk said:
It was a study into causes of crime, using economic deprivation as an influence of crime (along with detection / conviction rates). It suggested that "neighbourhood effects" were a dynamic force affecting crime. As neighbourhood effects wasn't included in the analysis, I understood "dynamic forces" to mean influential factors that were not included in the analysis.

Ignored factors seems plausible. Normally one would hope these are small, as otherwise it is not worth modelling without them
 

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