What is the chance of a major hurricane hitting the US Gulf Coast in 2007?

[Astronuc]

Well, it doesn't officially start for another three weeks. But whereas the government moved up daylight savings time - Mother Nature got a jump on this year Atlantic storm season.

The first named storm this year is - Andrea - which is only a subtropical storm at the moment.

From the National Hurricane Center -

At 800 Pm Edt...0000Z...the broad center of circulation of subtropical storm andrea was estimated near latitude 30.5 north... Longitude 79.5 west or about 110 miles...175 km...SE of Savannah, Georgiaa and about 135 miles ...220 km...NNE of Daytona Beach, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Winds of tropical storm force extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...mainly east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

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Meanwhile - Higher chance of Gulf Coast hurricane in '07
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/hurricanes_gulfcoast_dc

HOUSTON (Reuters) - There is an above-average chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. Gulf Coast this year, marking a possible return to the destructive seasons of 2004 and 2005, leading storm forecasters predicted on Tuesday.

AccuWeather and Colorado State University said Tuesday at a storm conference in Houston the chance that a storm will swing over the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico and into the Gulf Coast states again this year is higher than normal.

"For energy markets, it's a bullish forecast," said AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi. "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions," he said

Overall, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will bring 13 to 14 named storms, of which six or seven could strike the United States, AccuWeather said.

Colorado State University forecaster Phillip Klotzbach said at the conference there was a 49 percent chance that a hurricane packing winds of 111 miles per hour or higher would hit the Gulf Coast. The average chance for a major hurricane to hit the region is 30 percent, he said.

Remeber Accuweather's prediction and let's see how well they do.

Now just imagine another two major hurricanes like Katrian and Rita hitting the US - Gulf Coast or Atlantic Coast.

 

[Ki Man]

For those of you living in hurricane territory leave and come to California and wait for "The Big One" with us. mother of all earthquakes

 

[u83rn00b]

HAAA i don't have to worry bout no silly storms, INSTEAD, I get to wait till the biggest earthquake ever comes along and wipes us off the face of the planet! W00T!

 

[Ki Man]

HAAA i don't have to worry bout no silly storms, INSTEAD, I get to wait till the biggest earthquake ever comes along and wipes us off the face of the planet! W00T!

after that's over, all we californians will have to worry about is colliding with hawaii after we say bye bye to the mainland

 

[Astronuc]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Gonu

Cyclone Gonu is the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, and tied for the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the northern Indian Ocean. The second named tropical cyclone of the 2007 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Gonu developed from a persistent area of convection in the eastern Arabian Sea on June 1. With a favorable upper-level environment and warm sea surface temperatures, it rapidly intensified to attain peak 10-min winds of 240 km/h (150 mph) on June 3, as warned by the India Meteorological Department. Intense cyclones like Gonu have been rare over the Arabian Sea, as most storms in this area tend to be small and dissipate quickly.

In the US, TS Barry just blew by.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/BARRY.shtml

 

[Astronuc]

Cyclone Gonu blamed for 15 deaths
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070607/ap_on_re_mi_ea/cyclone_gonu

MUSCAT, Oman - Semi-trucks were trapped in flooded highways here Thursday after Cyclone Gonu battered Oman's coast on its path toward the world's most important crude oil tanker route. At least 15 storm-related deaths were reported.

Such storms are a rarity, but I wonder if this is part of the 'climate change', in which case, some traditionally dry areas may receive more rainfall, and perhaps other wetter areas will become more arid.

 

[arunbg]

I think the death toll maight turn out to be much more than initially feared. There are a lot of non-residential Indians working in Oman, and most of them are from my state. Already one person has been confirmed dead and about 8 Indians are missing. The authorities however say that by today evening the cyclone would have lost most of its steam.
A few pictures that show the extent of damage caused by http://fe49.news.sp1.yahoo.com/photos/ss/events//wl/060507gonu//im:/070607/481/xkj10406071035;_ylt=AtlweHqKC_rBuzWjfeJnFdrlWMcF