MHB What Is the Probability of Having Exactly k Boys in a Family of n Children?

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The discussion centers on calculating the probability of having exactly k boys in a family with n children, where the probability of each child being a boy is p. The initial formula proposed was P(X=k)=p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), which is incorrect. The correct formula for this probability is P(X=k)=C(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where C(n,k) is the binomial coefficient representing the number of ways to choose k boys from n children. This correction emphasizes the importance of including the combinatorial factor in the probability calculation.
evinda
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Hello! (Wave)

A couple gets $n$ children. At each birth, the probability to get a boy is $p$ (independent births). Which is the probability that exactly $k$ of the children are boys?

I have thought the following:

Let $X$ be the number of boys that the couple gets. Then the desired probality is

$P(X=k)=p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k}$

Am I right? (Thinking)
 
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Hey evinda!

Yes, that is correct. (Nod)
 
I like Serena said:
Hey evinda!

Yes, that is correct. (Nod)

Great! Thank you (Happy)
 
evinda said:
Hello! (Wave)

A couple gets $n$ children. At each birth, the probability to get a boy is $p$ (independent births). Which is the probability that exactly $k$ of the children are boys?

I have thought the following:

Let $X$ be the number of boys that the couple gets. Then the desired probality is

$P(X=k)=p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k}$

Am I right? (Thinking)
Hello,

Your answer should be $P(X=k)=\binom{n}{k}p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$
 
There is a nice little variation of the problem. The host says, after you have chosen the door, that you can change your guess, but to sweeten the deal, he says you can choose the two other doors, if you wish. This proposition is a no brainer, however before you are quick enough to accept it, the host opens one of the two doors and it is empty. In this version you really want to change your pick, but at the same time ask yourself is the host impartial and does that change anything. The host...

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