MHB What is the Probability of the Rapture Happening in Our Lifetime?

[mathdad]

In the New Testament, the Apostle Paul introduced an event that has come to be known as the rapture of the church. The rapture is an imminent event, which means it could happen at any moment in time. What is the probability that the rapture of the church will take place in our lifetime?

Set up a probability equation for this problem.

Let P = probability

 

[MarkFL]

If we assume that what Paul said is true, then we need to know what period of time is meant by "in our lifetime," and we need to know how some cutoff time in which if this event has not already occurred, it will not occur after, that is perhaps, how long will humanity exist, assuming humans are the only species in the universe under consideration for rapture. There are simply too many unknowns here to give a reasonable answer. :D

 

[mathdad]

A well-thought reply.

 

[jonah1]

Beer soaked fake gratitude follows.

In the New Testament, the Apostle Paul introduced an event that has come to be known as the rapture of the church. The rapture is an imminent event, which means it could happen at any moment in time. What is the probability that the rapture of the church will take place in our lifetime?

Set up a probability equation for this problem.

Let P = probability

Thank you for that thought-provoking, intellectually invigorating question.

 

[Opalg]

In the New Testament, the Apostle Paul introduced an event that has come to be known as the rapture of the church. The rapture is an imminent event, which means it could happen at any moment in time. What is the probability that the rapture of the church will take place in our lifetime?

Set up a probability equation for this problem.

Let P = probability

The Apostle apparently thought that this rapture was imminent. Perhaps he thought there was a 0.5 chance that it would happen in his lifetime. If not, maybe the chance would continue to halve in each successive lifetime. Using the biblical definition of 70 years for a lifetime, there have been about 28 lifetimes since Paul's day. That gives the probability of a rapture during our lifetime as about $2^{-28}$, or roughly $0.000000004.$

 

[I like Serena]

The Apostle apparently thought that this rapture was imminent. Perhaps he thought there was a 0.5 chance that it would happen in his lifetime. If not, maybe the chance would continue to halve in each successive lifetime. Using the biblical definition of 70 years for a lifetime, there have been about 28 lifetimes since Paul's day. That gives the probability of a rapture during our lifetime as about $2^{-28}$, or roughly $0.000000004.$

Assuming that the chance in Paul's life time was indeed $0.5$, and assuming that in each successive life time it was again $0.5$.
Then the chance that it didn't happen for 28 life times is $2^{-28}$.
Assuming that our assumptions are correct, that would mean that the chance that rapture (whatever that means) happens in our life time is $0.5$.

 

[mathdad]

Thank you very much.