# What will my population be in 1,000 years?

• MHB
• annab
In summary: No objection. As long as we know its an ASSUMPTION. There is NOTHING in the problem statement that demands that it be so. We should also be careful not to conflate mortality rates with future life expectation.In summary, if you have a starting population of 200 people with an average life expectancy of 35 and a yearly growth rate of .10, your population will be in 1,000 years at most.
annab
If I have a starting population of 200 people with an average life expectancy of 35 and a yearly growth rate of .10, what will my population be in 1,000 years?

annab said:
If I have a starting population of 200 people with an average life expectancy of 35 and a yearly growth rate of .10, what will my population be in 1,000 years?

Welcome to MHB!

Have you made any progress on the exercise? Anything in particular that you are struggling with?

annab said:
with an average life expectancy of 35
Could it be that the answer depends on how the survival time is assumed to be distributed?

Joppy

I haven’t made any progress on this problem, I don’t know where to start.

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Krylov

I don’t understand, can you explain the possible distributions to me and show me how to do it?

annab said:
Joppy

I haven’t made any progress on this problem, I don’t know where to start.

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Krylov

I don’t understand, can you explain the possible distributions to me and show me how to do it?

Hi annab! Welcome to MHB!

What will happen in the first year if no one dies?
That is, how many people will be born?
And how many people might we expect to die in the first year?

1) 1/2 die immediately and 1/2 die in 70 years.
2) Everyone lives exactly 35 years.
3) Deaths occur uniformly between 25 and 45 -- ~20 per year.
4) Infinitely many other possibilities.

We are told the ORIGINAL population has an average lifetime of 35 years. We are not told ANYTHING about those joining the group. If joining the group is defined as a birth process, it is very unlikely to support the assumption that new entrants have the same life expectancy as the original population.

tkhunny said:
1) 1/2 die immediately and 1/2 die in 70 years.
2) Everyone lives exactly 35 years.
3) Deaths occur uniformly between 25 and 45 -- ~20 per year.
4) Infinitely many other possibilities.

We are told the ORIGINAL population has an average lifetime of 35 years. We are not told ANYTHING about those joining the group. If joining the group is defined as a birth process, it is very unlikely to support the assumption that new entrants have the same life expectancy as the original population.

My interpretation: it just means that on average 1 person in 35 dies every year.
I believe the actual age distribution is not really relevant. And without information saying otherwise we should assume that the death rate is constant.

I like Serena said:
My interpretation: it just means that on average 1 person in 35 dies every year.
I believe the actual age distribution is not really relevant. And without information saying otherwise we should assume that the death rate is constant.
No objection. As long as we know its an ASSUMPTION. There is NOTHING in the problem statement that demands that it be so. We should also be careful not to conflate mortality rates with future life expectation. Since we are given expected future lifetime, we may have jumped a bridge inadvertently.

## 1. What factors will influence the population in 1,000 years?

The population in 1,000 years will be influenced by a variety of factors such as advancements in technology, changes in reproductive patterns, availability of resources, and potential natural disasters.

## 2. Will the population continue to grow exponentially?

It is difficult to predict with certainty, but it is likely that the population growth will slow down due to factors such as increased education and access to birth control methods, as well as potential limitations on resources.

## 3. How will climate change impact the population in 1,000 years?

Climate change is a significant concern for the future population as it can lead to displacement of populations, changes in food production, and potential conflicts over resources. However, it is challenging to predict the exact impact it will have on the population in 1,000 years.

## 4. Will there be a limit to the Earth's carrying capacity for humans?

It is widely accepted that there is a limit to the Earth's carrying capacity, but it is difficult to determine what that limit is. Various factors such as technological advancements, changes in consumption patterns, and sustainable resource management could potentially increase the Earth's carrying capacity for humans.

## 5. How can we ensure a sustainable and balanced population for the future?

To ensure a sustainable and balanced population for the future, it is crucial to address issues such as access to education, healthcare, and resources. Additionally, implementing sustainable practices and promoting responsible reproduction can also help maintain a healthy population for the future.

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