Who do you think will be president first?

[wasteofo2]

So far, all presidents so far have been white christian males, except for some of the early presidents (Thomas Jefferson specifically noted that he didn't believe anyone shared his religious beliefs). So who do you think will become president first, a woman, a member of an ethnic minority group (black, asian, latino etc.) or a religious minority group (jew, muslim, hindu etc.).

I'm going to guess a white christian woman will be first, though a christian latino wouldn't be too far out of the question, especially with the growing latino population.

 

[member 5645]

A black man - Here's to Colin Powell in 2008!

 

[selfAdjoint]

I think a Jew would have a better shot at the Presidency in the next 20 years than a black man. We saw in the 2000 election that Lieberman, an observant Jew, did not drag down the democtratic ticket as Vice Presidential candidate. It would have to be a very special person though, a breakthrough individual as Kennedy was for the Catholics.

 

[The_Professional]

Hillary Clinton vs. Colin Powell

most likely a woman first

 

[member 5645]

Hillary Clinton vs. Colin Powell

most likely a woman first

Honestly, not just because I like him, Powell would wipe the floor with Hillary.

The dems rely on the black vote- let's be honest here - quite a bit. And let's also be honest, that having Colin Powell win, and do a good job, would be breaking down a lot of societal barriers for black people. Thus, we KNOW no republican will vote hillary, we know that many black people would vote Powell, and I Powell has time and again shown to appeal to moderate democrats (while Hillary has shown to be a very polarizing person).

If Powell would run, he says he wouldn't, I am convinced that there is no one out there that would stand at a chance at this stage in the game.

 

[wasteofo2]

I think a Jew would have a better shot at the Presidency in the next 20 years than a black man. We saw in the 2000 election that Lieberman, an observant Jew, did not drag down the democtratic ticket as Vice Presidential candidate. It would have to be a very special person though, a breakthrough individual as Kennedy was for the Catholics.

I don't know, I think Leiberman might have just been too jewey for some people to handle (and honestly, he's a major steryotypical jew). His judaism probabally got a lot of people in TN who might have otherwise voted for Gore to stay home or vote Bush.

 

[russ_watters]

Good question - we're close enough to the possibility that you really need to look at specific candidates and rate their odds. Powell would likely win if he ran, but he won't run. Lieberman would have a decent shot. Condi Rice would have a decent shot. Though I personally dislike her, Hillary Clinton probably has the best chance.

 

[kat]

Unfortunately, I don't think that this country is ready to elect a female president.
Actually, I was absolutely dumfounded by a conversation I had with a group of young women (early 20's) who were adamant that women were not made to lead, and that having a female president would a big mistake. I wonder what the % of women is that feel this way, I'm sure there is still also a large % of men who don't feel a woman should be leading the country. For a country that is so far advanced in many respects, it's disheartening to see how backwards they are when it comes to the leadership of the nation.
I think Powell would have a better chance then a female, but then I also believe that racism is still rampant here, although it's understated as many people understand that vocalizing their views would make them look ignorant, they still hold to them albeit much quieter then they used to.
I think a democratic jew would be the most likely supportable candidate. Lieberman would probably be the only one of the bunch with an actual shot at it, but as mentioned he is probably still too much of a "stereotypical jew" to garner the support needed to win.

 

[Njorl]

None of those listed will be president in my lifetime. Also, we will have no presidents who are significantly overweight, under 5'7", over 6'5", missing a limb, wheelchair bound, have a prominent facial birthmark, is blind or deaf. I think even a beard or moustache is completely disqualifying.

The American presidency is more critically cast for looks and image than Hollywood's leading roles. We "know" what presidents are, and don't want someone who challenges that image.

I used to blame the people for being so shallow, but I think that the media is more to blame. They never cover issues. They cover image, strategy, fund-raising ,impact - never issues.

I suppose someone with an unacceptable feature could be a vice-president, like an endearingly flawed flunky in an action picture, but that is the only way they could become president.

Njorl

 

[selfAdjoint]

Franklin Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and he got elected four times.

 

[Robert Zaleski]

Franklin Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and he got elected four times.

Most people where not aware that FDR was an invalid. You have to remember that during his time there was no television and the press was more respectful of the office and kept things like that under wrap.

 

[Robert Zaleski]

Could I vote for a women, a black or a Jew; yes, if he/she had my same values and my respect.

 

[wasteofo2]

Good question - we're close enough to the possibility that you really need to look at specific candidates and rate their odds. Powell would likely win if he ran, but he won't run. Lieberman would have a decent shot. Condi Rice would have a decent shot. Though I personally dislike her, Hillary Clinton probably has the best chance.

How do you figure Lieberman would have a decent shot, when he got beaten by such a longshot like Sharpton in some primaries? I think Lieberman doing so poorly in the primaries shows just how hard it would be for a Jew to get elected president, even though the man is a competent politician and would likely make a fine President, even in the democratic primaries he failed miserably.

I think women like Condoleezza Rice and Hillary would have no chance at all. I live in New York, where democrats outnumber republicans 8:1, and I've yet to meet anyone(male or female, democrat or republican) who really likes Hillary Clinton, everyone thinks she's a pretentious, annoying **** who only got elected because of Bill. She's someone that's so easy to dislike, despite party allignment. And Rice, man is she easy to hate. At least with Hillary, you see her trying to put on fake niceness, but every single picture you see of Rice she has this demonic scowl on her face more reminiscant of a hardened criminal about to be executed than any sort of politician. Even if she were some kind-faced woman who acted nice, she's still a black woman , which (as noted by others before) would pose many problems for her, especially since she'd be running under the Republican ticket, and a good deal of the sexism/racism in america comes from typically red states and people who typically vote republican.

 

[member 5645]

especially since she'd be running under the Republican ticket, and a good deal of the sexism/racism in america comes from typically red states and people who typically vote republican.

I think you underestimate the Conservative hate of democrats, and more particularly, Hillary.
Put Hillary against Powell and you won't find a single Republican that would ever sway to the dark side- the opposite does not hold true.

 

[HAVOC451]

Lieberman will never be the president. Not because he's Jewish, but because he is utterly unable to inspire the electorate.

 

[Njorl]

Franklin Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and he got elected four times.

That was before TV. Well, before TV became omnipresent.

Njorl

 

[wasteofo2]

I think you underestimate the Conservative hate of democrats, and more particularly, Hillary.
Put Hillary against Powell and you won't find a single Republican that would ever sway to the dark side- the opposite does not hold true.

That's because everyone hates Hillary, she's such a ****...

 

[Njorl]

I think you underestimate the Conservative hate of democrats, and more particularly, Hillary.
Put Hillary against Powell and you won't find a single Republican that would ever sway to the dark side- the opposite does not hold true.

Nonsense. 70% of the white people in Louisiana voted for David Duke rather than vote for a black man. A considerable number of people in this country have racial hatred as their single most motivating factor in life.

What I want to know is, how could Colin Powell win even a single Republican primary? Take any white, christian male, give him a good shave and a cheap suit and he will beat Colin Powell in every Republican primary. Not that I think the Democrats will nominate a black candidate any time soon. Has a black Republican won a statewide election since reconstruction?

Njorl

 

[selfAdjoint]

That was before TV. Well, before TV became omnipresent.

Njorl

We had newsreels, everybody saw them, and Life magazine was full of pictures of him. He usually had a robe over his knees to hide the mechanics, but even we little kids knew his legs wre paralized from polio and he couldn't walk. He stood, for brief moments, with leg braces, but that was only rarely and required a lot of setup.

A cripple with charisma could wow the public, look at the sympathy for Christopher Reeve.

 

[Njorl]

We had newsreels, everybody saw them, and Life magazine was full of pictures of him. He usually had a robe over his knees to hide the mechanics, but even we little kids knew his legs wre paralized from polio and he couldn't walk. He stood, for brief moments, with leg braces, but that was only rarely and required a lot of setup.

A cripple with charisma could wow the public, look at the sympathy for Christopher Reeve.

First, many people did not know he was paralyzed. Many thought he was just weakened.

That is beside the point though. I'm talking about how TV has changed our culture. Image is everything. Elections are not about what you are, they are about how you might be portrayed. A handicapped person can be countersold more strongly than he could be sold.

Njorl

 

[member 5645]

Nonsense. 70% of the white people in Louisiana voted for David Duke rather than vote for a black man. A considerable number of people in this country have racial hatred as their single most motivating factor in life.

What I want to know is, how could Colin Powell win even a single Republican primary? Take any white, christian male, give him a good shave and a cheap suit and he will beat Colin Powell in every Republican primary. Not that I think the Democrats will nominate a black candidate any time soon. Has a black Republican won a statewide election since reconstruction?

Njorl

First, it was 60%, not 70%.
In 1991 when he lost, he got 55% of the white vote.

Almost 15years later, are things different? absolutely! Look to the last governor race with Jindal (an Indian American) running on the Republican ticket. While he lost, he got more of the white vote than his opponent (albeit she is American Indian by ethnicity, she looks like any native born white American woman).
Yes they have. However, no nonwhite governor has existed since then - Jindal would have been the first.
But just so you know - picking one of the poorest rural states in the Union is a pretty skewed example, and you know that very well. Louisiana doesn't carry much vote with it, and would not be the death knell for a nonwhite presidential candidate.


Again I say, Hillary vs. Powell - you fully underestimate the Republican hatred of this woman.

 

[member 5645]

Here's an interesting article on the subject, from a right wing source catering to right wing voters.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/6/22/15901.shtml

and another
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,89700,00.html

I'm telling you. You are listening to the racists too much, and discounting the possibility of having minorities vote GOP.

 

[kat]

Has a black Republican won a statewide election since reconstruction?

Njorl

watts was a black republican

 

[Njorl]

watts was a black republican

I said statewide.
Njorl

 

[Njorl]

Edwarde Brooke, was a Republican Senator from Massachussetts, 1967-1979. There have been no other black republican senators, and no black republican governers since reconstruction.

Doug Wilder, governer of Virginia, and Carol Mosely-Braun Senator of Illinois are the on ly democrats that come to mind. I'll look for more.

Njorl

 

[wasteofo2]

Just for anyone who might be interested, Ben Nighthorse Campbell is a Native American Republican Senator from Colarado, plus he's got a ponytail. He's also "the only Native American in the Senate, a renowned jewelry designer, former member of the U.S. Olympic judo team, and an avid motorcycle enthusiast. Received the U.S. Capitol Police Service Award for coming to the aid of an officer struggling with a violent felon. You try to filibuster this guy, he'll filibust you up." - http://www.zug.com/pranks/senator/senator_campbell.html

 

[Robert Zaleski]

Has a black Republican won a statewide election since reconstruction?

I think the greater problem faced by black Republicans getting elected might not be whether they can get the white Republican vote, but can they inspire black Democrats to vote for them. I believe between 80 and 90 percent of all blacks are staunch Democrat and rarely cross party lines.

 

[Njorl]

Here's an interesting article on the subject, from a right wing source catering to right wing voters.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/6/22/15901.shtml

and another
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,89700,00.html

I'm telling you. You are listening to the racists too much, and discounting the possibility of having minorities vote GOP.

It's not that I listen to racists too much, it's that I hear them too much.

Njorl

 

[member 5645]

I think the greater problem faced by black Republicans getting elected might not be whether they can get the white Republican vote, but can they inspire black Democrats to vote for them. I believe between 80 and 90 percent of all blacks are staunch Democrat and rarely cross party lines.

Democrat strategy has historically been - 40% of the white vote, 90% of the black vote.

 

[selfAdjoint]

First, many people did not know he was paralyzed. Many thought he was just weakened.

That is beside the point though. I'm talking about how TV has changed our culture. Image is everything. Elections are not about what you are, they are about how you might be portrayed. A handicapped person can be countersold more strongly than he could be sold.

Njorl

I'll just have to remain unconvinced. I think I'm the only one here who experienced the social dynamics around FDR and his debility (remember THe March of Dimes? Every schoolkid contributed a dime to the collection, in FDR's name). And everybody knew what polio does. Believe it! This was the era when parents wouldn't let their kids go to the swimming pool.

So I believe that dynamics, which has been dormant all these years, could be raised up if a really charismatic candidate with a handicap came along.
And the spin doctors for the opposition would lay off because every attempt to smear "Champion Joe who beat the Big P" as an incompetent cripple would come back to bite 'em.