Why Do Different Calculations of a Probability Problem Yield Different Results?

  • Context: MHB 
  • Thread starter Thread starter schinb65
  • Start date Start date
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The probability problem discussed involves calculating the likelihood that a randomly chosen individual owns either an automobile or a house, but not both, based on survey data indicating 60% automobile ownership, 30% house ownership, and 20% ownership of both. The correct calculation yields a probability of 0.5, confirmed through both a Venn Diagram and the formula \(P[A \cup B] - P[A \cap B]\). The formula can be adjusted to \(P[A] + P[B] - 2P[A \cap B]\) to arrive at the same result. Misapplication of the formula was identified as the source of confusion for some participants.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with Venn Diagrams for visualizing set relationships
  • Knowledge of the probability formula \(P[A \cup B] = P[A] + P[B] - P[A \cap B]\)
  • Ability to manipulate algebraic expressions in probability calculations
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the derivation and application of the formula for probabilities involving unions and intersections
  • Practice creating and interpreting Venn Diagrams for various probability scenarios
  • Explore conditional probability and its implications in real-world contexts
  • Learn about common pitfalls in probability calculations and how to avoid them
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for students studying probability, educators teaching probability concepts, and professionals in fields requiring statistical analysis, such as marketing and data science.

schinb65
Messages
12
Reaction score
0
A marketing survey indicates that 60% of the population owns
an automobile, 30% owns a house, and 20% owns both an automobile and a house.
Calculate the probability that a person chosen at random owns an automobile or a house, but not
both.

I am Told that the answer is .5, I did this problem 2 different ways and I received different answers, and .5 is one of the answers.

If I draw a Venn Diagram I receive .5 and that makes sense.
I also tried this, \(P[A\cup B]=P[A]+P-P[A \cap B]\),
I assume that I have something incorrect in the formula since I do not get the right answer. Would I be able to use this formula?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Welcome to MHB, schinb65!

schinb65 said:
A marketing survey indicates that 60% of the population owns
an automobile, 30% owns a house, and 20% owns both an automobile and a house.
Calculate the probability that a person chosen at random owns an automobile or a house, but not
both.

I am Told that the answer is .5, I did this problem 2 different ways and I received different answers, and .5 is one of the answers.

If I draw a Venn Diagram I receive .5 and that makes sense.
I also tried this, \(P[A\cup B]=P[A]+P-P[A \cap B]\),
I assume that I have something incorrect in the formula since I do not get the right answer. Would I be able to use this formula?


A Venn Diagram is best. ;)

But yes, you can also use that formula.
\begin{aligned}
P[\text{A or B but not both}] &= P[A\cup B]-P[A \cap B] \\
&=\big(P[A]+P-P[A \cap B]\big)-P[A \cap B] \\
&=P[A]+P-2P[A \cap B] \\
&=60\%+30\%-2\times 20\% \\
&=50\% \\
\end{aligned}
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
2K
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
939
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • · Replies 36 ·
2
Replies
36
Views
5K
Replies
10
Views
1K
  • · Replies 13 ·
Replies
13
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
1K
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
3K
Replies
1
Views
2K