Why Does the Expected Value of Sample Variance Differ From Population Variance?

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SUMMARY

The discussion clarifies the distinction between population variance (σ²) and sample variance (S²), emphasizing that population variance is calculated using the true mean, while sample variance utilizes the sample mean. The unbiased estimator for the variance of the sample mean is defined as \(\hat{V}[\bar{y}_{n}] = \frac{N-n}{N}\frac{s^{2}}{n}\), where \(s^{2}\) is the sample variance. The key conclusion is that the expected value of the sample variance, \(E[s^{2}]\), equals the population variance, σ², rather than the sample variance S², due to the different denominators used in their calculations.

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safina
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It is defined that the population variance is S^{2}= \frac{1}{N-1}\sum^{N}_{1}\left(y_{i} - \bar{y}_{N}\right)^{2} or \sigma^{2}= \frac{1}{N}\sum^{N}_{1}\left(y_{i} - \bar{y}_{N}\right)^{2}.

Also that the V\left[\bar{y}_{n}\right] = \frac{N-n}{N}\frac{S^{2}}{n} = \left(\frac{1}{n} - \frac{1}{N}\right)S^{2} and its unbiased estimator is \hat{V}\left[\bar{y}_{n}\right] = \frac{N-n}{N}\frac{s^{2}}{n} = \left(\frac{1}{n} - \frac{1}{N}\right)s^{2} where s^{2}= \frac{1}{n-1}\sum^{n}_{1}\left(y_{i} - \bar{y}_{n}\right)^{2}

To show that \hat{V}\left[\bar{y}_{n}\right] is unbiased, I understand that we only need to show that E\left[s^{2}\right] \right]= S^{2}


I have done like this E\left[s^{2}\right] \right] = E\left[\frac{1}{n-1}\sum^{n}_{1}\left(y_{i} - \bar{y}_{n}\right)^{2}\right] and I have arrived at \left(n-1\right)E\left[s^{2}\right] = nE\left[y^{2}_{i}\right] - nE\left[\bar{y}^{2}_{n}\right] and come up at E\left[s^{2}\right] \right]= \sigma^{2}

My question is why I did not come up at S^{2} as the E\left[s^{2}\right]?
 
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For σ you use the true mean. For S you use the sample mean. That is why you need to divide by N-1 rather than N.
 

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