Will Dutch Political Turmoil Affect Military Withdrawal Plans?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential impact of Dutch political turmoil on military withdrawal plans, particularly concerning the Dutch military presence in Uruzgan, Afghanistan. Participants explore the implications of political decisions on military operations and the broader context of international military commitments.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that ongoing negotiations and political challenges may not significantly alter the planned withdrawal of Dutch troops from Afghanistan.
  • Others express concern that political indecision regarding military engagement could lead to negative consequences, including security risks at home.
  • A few participants highlight the historical context of military commitments, arguing for the necessity of clear termination dates for missions to avoid prolonged engagements.
  • There are references to the broader implications of military actions, including the potential for long-term occupation and its effectiveness against insurgent groups.
  • Some participants question the rationale behind military interventions, particularly in light of past events such as the September 11 attacks and the subsequent invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Discussions also touch on the political landscape in the Netherlands, including the rise of controversial political figures and their influence on public opinion regarding military operations.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no clear consensus on the implications of Dutch political turmoil for military withdrawal plans. Multiple competing perspectives on military engagement and its consequences are present throughout the discussion.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge the complexity of the situation, including the interplay between political decisions and military strategy, as well as the historical precedents that inform current debates. There are also references to the statistical considerations of military commitments in relation to public safety and resource allocation.

Andre
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Most likely not.

The negotiations are still ongoing but the mood is getting more and more gloomy. There have been a serious of issues. Last week the support of the operations in Iraq was challenged to be politically unsound. But the current issue is the departure of the Dutch military units in Uruzgan - Aghanistan.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315004575073394281448752.html

There is a complex set of arguments for either point of view. However the firm deal had been to go and recuperate the troops, giving the armed forces some air. So some political leaders insist that the deal is kept and that redrawal as per plan is in order.

To some this may seem a weak argument, however in the past similar political problems have arisen in a mission with an open end (Bosnia) which fueled the position that every mission should have a clear termination date, before commitment.
 
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I don't know much about Dutch politics but I do know that if you have not the worked out whether you want to go to war or not it may be best to stay home, though in that case you may also find that the bad guys are coming to a polder near you.
 
Carid said:
I don't know much about Dutch politics but I do know that if you have not the worked out whether you want to go to war or not it may be best to stay home, though in that case you may also find that the bad guys are coming to a polder near you.

Maybe read the article to get an idea. It's also about burden sharing and if you'd compare military commitment for expeditionary mission versus assets per NATO country, it may give quite a different picture.
 
Unfortunately, there are countries willing to stand up for what they believe in and others willing to let others stand up for them. The Dutch can choose. It's their right. Just don't ask the world to be fair. It is not as complicated as you think.
 
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The government has resigned over the Uruzgan operation, there really was no way out anymore.
 
Forget Uruzgan. If only the Dutch had hung on to New Amsterdam, the World would be a much better place today.
 
mheslep said:
different nations were killed in the WTC towers, 109 Europeans, including one from the Netherlands. Heading home will not make this problem go away.
I thought invading Iraq, and destroying their WMD was going to make this go away?
What's the end solution now - permanent forces in Afghanistan for the next few hundred years?
Then who are we going to occupy next? Iran, Pakistan, Saudi ?
 
  • #10
mgb_phys said:
I thought invading Iraq, and destroying their WMD was going to make this go away?
What's the end solution now - permanent forces in Afghanistan for the next few hundred years?
Then who are we going to occupy next? Iran, Pakistan, Saudi ?

We can leave that to Israel.

Iraq was an insurgency hot bed. Look at the Second battle of Fallujah.

Fighting an unconventional enemy whilst holding your troops to a conventional war will undoubtedly make it a long and arduous task. When weapons caches are stored in mosques, and the insurgents use women and children to carry their weapons, it will take a long time to destroy the insurgents.
 
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  • #11
Count Iblis said:
Forget Uruzgan. If only the Dutch had hung on to New Amsterdam, the World would be a much better place today.
Ironically, the inability of the Dutch to hang on is the topic at hand.
 
  • #13
mheslep said:
This is disappointing. The Dutch fight well, but they arrived in 2006, four years after the US and UK. Now they may leave in 2010? Deputy Prime Minister Bos should recall the citizens of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_September_11_attacks#Non-American_casualities" different nations were killed in the WTC towers, 109 Europeans, including one from the Netherlands. Heading home will not make this problem go away.

It's not clear that long term military occupation will either. From a pure statistical view point, it makes no sense for a large scale commitment of government resources because of the death of one citizen. The consideration would be the likelihood of future incidents, and the cost/likelihood of success of a military operation versus the potential future events.
 
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  • #14
mheslep said:
Ironically, the inability of the Dutch to hang on is the topic at hand.

And the US did not stick to the topic of the Iraq invasion: Saddam's stockpïles of WMD about to be handed over to Al Qa'ida.
 
  • #15
Galteeth said:
It's not clear that long term military occupation will either.
Nobody wants an occupation any longer than necessary to knock out the Taliban and AQ, and establish some kind of secure government. And there is evidence that, done correctly, counter insurgency wars can be successful.
From a pure statistical view point, it makes no sense for a large scale commitment of government resources because of the death of one citizen. The consideration would be the likelihood of future incidents, and the cost/likelihood of success of a military operation versus the potential future events.
For that comment to make sense 911 would have to viewed as freak, random occurrence like a lightning strike, and not the determined efforts of AQ and fanatic Islamists.
 
  • #16
Count Iblis said:
And the US did not stick to the topic of the Iraq invasion: Saddam's stockpïles of WMD about to be handed over to Al Qa'ida.
What?
 
  • #17
mheslep said:
What?

:biggrin:
 

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