WW3 in Syria: Turkey Caught in Self-Inflicted Problem

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the potential for escalating conflict in Syria involving Turkey, Russia, and other international actors, with implications for global stability. Participants explore the geopolitical dynamics, historical context, and the role of mutual defense agreements amidst the ongoing crisis.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that Turkey's actions in Syria could lead to a confrontation with Russia and Syria, potentially triggering a larger conflict.
  • Others argue that invoking Article 5 of the Mutual Defense Agreement is unlikely based on the current situation, as it requires direct threats to Turkey.
  • One participant notes that the ongoing tragedy in Syria creates a chaotic environment that attracts various local and regional actors, complicating the situation further.
  • Some mention Turkey's ongoing conflict with Kurdish groups as a factor in its involvement in Syria.
  • A participant expresses skepticism about the likelihood of WW3 starting in Syria, suggesting that alarmist views may not be justified.
  • Humor is introduced in the discussion with a comparison of historical statements about war to a rhetorical question about family dynamics.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants exhibit disagreement regarding the likelihood and implications of a potential conflict in Syria, with some expressing alarm and others questioning the validity of such concerns. No consensus is reached on the interpretation of Turkey's strategic position or the potential for invoking mutual defense agreements.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference historical precedents and the complexities of international relations, but there are unresolved assumptions about the motivations and actions of the involved parties. The discussion reflects a range of perspectives without definitive conclusions.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those studying international relations, conflict resolution, or the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.

kadiot
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While everyone is busy with Covid 19, no one knows that WW3 may start anytime in Syria if Turkey can't shake off his way out against a self inflicted problem. A head to head confrontation against Russia & Syria. EU & NATO will be compelled to defend it. Turkey can also invoke Article 5 of their Mutual Defense Agreement if trapped.
 
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kadiot said:
Turkey can also invoke Article 5 of their Mutual Defense Agreement if trapped.
That's a mutual defense agreement. No way to trigger it on basis of events outside of Turkey. So Russia & Syria will just carefully keep their distance and that's all for now.
 
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WW3 could have started any time in the last 75 years. What makes Syria different?

The tragedy of Syria makes it an unregulated vacuum. It draws in the local gangs and becomes the common battleground of neighbours, and bullies who want to exercise their malevolence, testing expired explosives in weapons under battle conditions.

Turkey has taken advantage of the Syrian vacuum to continue it's long confrontation with the Kurds in the border region. The Russians are careful and so will not enter Turkish territory.

It is a truism that; “If we could have avoided the first world war we would never have had another one”.
 
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To make things more interesting, Turkey is already forging closer ties with Russia to the dismay of the US.
 
kadiot said:
While everyone is busy with Covid 19, no one knows that WW3 may start anytime in Syria if Turkey can't shake off his way out against a self inflicted problem.
Exactly. No one know it because it's not true. You're being overly alarmist.
 
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“If we could have avoided the first world war we would never have had another one”.

Is that like "If your parents didn't have any children, you probably won't either?" :wink:
 
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