- #1

jskosmo

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OK - my wife and I are about to embark on the most expensive of procedures to try and get pregnant. We can pay per procedure, or we can pay a fixed price of $25,000 (insurance of sorts) that covers everything, and we get 70% of our money back if we don't take a baby home (seriously).

We're trying to figure out which way to go.

Here's the problem:

1) First procedure - $12,000 (called a 'fresh cycle') - probability of pregnancy is 40%

2) Second procedure - $3,000 (called a 'frozen cycle') - probability of pregnancy is 25%

3) Third procedure - $12,000 (another fresh cycle) - probability of pregnancy 40%

4) Fourth procedure - $3,000 (another frozen cycle) - probability of pregnancy is 25%

5) Fifth procedure - $12,000 (another fresh cycle) - probability of pregnancy 40%

6) Sixth procedure - $3,000 (another frozen cycle) - probability of pregnancy 25%

After the six procedures - if we don't get pregnant, then we get 70% of the $25,000 back - which we'd probably use to adopt (the doctors say we've hit the point of diminishing returns).

On top of all this - the probability of a miscarriage is always 22% (in each scenario above). It can drop if we implant multiple embryos, but let's assume worst-case (22%).

We're pretty 'normal' - no conditions or issues that would cause us to deviate from the probabilities above.

We can go without 'baby insurance' - in which case we pay per procedure until we get pregnant (which could get really expensive - and might end up with lots of cost but no pregnancy at all) - or we can go with insurance - $25,000 and 70% back if we don't take home a baby (not just get pregnant - take home a baby). Medications are expensive, but those are the same cost in either case, so am not figuring that into this.

Honestly - I'm not even entirely sure how to go at this.

I think I'd like to figure out:

- The amount we'll likely spend getting pregnant 'going it without insurance' - then I'll compare this against $25,000 and figure out which is a better deal.

- What's the probability of 'going it alone' and going through all six steps above, and ending in no pregnancy?

- Would probably like to know the probability of pregnancy after each of the six steps above.

But if you can recommend a different way to go at this, I'd be grateful.

Thanks for any and all input!