Mister T said:
You can derive the mathematical model and you can perform a numerical analysis using the mathematical model. What you can't do is use that model to reliably predict how Nature will behave. You have to perform experiments to see if your model correctly predicts how Nature behaves.Well, it doesn't perfectly describe the motion of a bob hanging from a spring. It's an idealization call simple harmonic motion, and although we can't produce perfect simple harmonic motion, we can go through a process where we get closer and closer to the idealization. In fact, there is nothing we know of that is a perfectly valid theory of physics. All theories have limits of validity.
As to whether or not it was a guess, I don't know as I'm not aware of the history. But the process of constructing physical theories is an inductive one. We can't deduce the correct theories of physics using deductive reasoning alone.
In mathematics we use proofs that involve pure deductive reasoning. The problem with that process is that there's nothing introduced that wasn't already present in the premises.
Take Einstein's special theory of relativity. He used two postulates to deduce effects like relative simultaneity, length contraction, and time dilation. These deductions follow logically from the postulates using pure deductive reasoning. However, those deductions had to be tested experimentally before they were accepted.
https://www.feynmanlectures.caltech.edu/I_01.html "The principle of science, the definition, almost, is the following:
The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the
sole judge of scientific “truth.” But what is the source of knowledge? Where do the laws that are to be tested come from? Experiment, itself, helps to produce these laws, in the sense that it gives us hints. But also needed is
imagination to create from these hints the great generalizations—to guess at the wonderful, simple, but very strange patterns beneath them all, and then to experiment to check again whether we have made the right guess. This imagining process is so difficult that there is a division of labor in physics: there are
theoretical physicists who imagine, deduce, and guess at new laws, but do not experiment; and then there are
experimental physicists who experiment, imagine, deduce, and guess."
This is the paragraph from the link. I think this is what you are saying.
All the laws like coulombs law, law of gravity, gauss law, kinematic eqns, friction law, hookes law are deduced together from like mathematically/analytically and experiments. They are approximate. These models or laws describe our world roughly exactly.
Things in physics move forward from defining ,experimenting, deducing, experimenting.