B Another Probability Freak

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On July 14, 2025, a bridge player was dealt two hands where the highest card was a seven, an occurrence with odds of approximately one in 250 million. The discussion highlights the confusion surrounding the calculations, with participants providing varying estimates, including one of about 234 million. Despite the discrepancies, there is a consensus that the rarity of this event is astonishing. The conversation also references a Wikipedia article on "Go and Mathematics," which discusses similarly improbable scenarios. The rarity of such hands in bridge showcases the game's unpredictability and the fascinating nature of probability.
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I admit I'm not into bridge but the comments to the OP you linked to makes it look pretty confusing. At least for someone like me who don't really get the game...

EDIT: I mean they don't seem to agree...

EDIT2: Oh, overlooked this one:

"
I got 1 in 234,484,904.

I think we can all agree that it's approximately 1 in 234 million. Do we really need to worry about being more precise?
"

Pretty wild, I'll admit.
 
There's a "Go and Mathematics" article on Wikipedia which also "sports" some pretty wild numbers.
 

Thread 'A variant of the Monty Hall problem'

There is a nice little variation of the problem. The host says, after you have chosen the door, that you can change your guess, but to sweeten the deal, he says you can choose the two other doors, if you wish. This proposition is a no brainer, however before you are quick enough to accept it, the host opens one of the two doors and it is empty. In this version you really want to change your pick, but at the same time ask yourself is the host impartial and does that change anything. The host...
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