Antonine Plague - small pox + measles, or hemorrhagic virus/bacterium?

[Astronuc]

I was listening to a program of the decline and fall of the Byzantium empire, in conjunction with the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, and part of the program covered the Antonine Plague, which just happened to coincide with the conflict between the Roman Empire and Parthian Empire. Ancient sources agree that the plague is likely to have appeared during the Roman siege of the Mesopotamian city of Seleucia in the winter of 165–166, during the Parthian campaign of Lucius Verus. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonine_Plague

Numbers of deaths vary. Historian Paul Cooper mentions about 2% of the population of the Roman Empire, but higher rates in the Roman military and key trade cities, where 10 to 15% of persons may have perished.

From the Wikipedia article - "Ammianus Marcellinus reported that the plague spread to Gaul and to the legions along the Rhine. Eutropius stated that a large proportion of the empire's population died from this outbreak," and "contemporary Roman historian Cassius Dio, the disease broke out again nine years later in 189 AD and caused up to 2,000 deaths a day in the city of Rome, 25% of those who were affected." The article mentions an estimated total death count of "5–10 million, roughly 10% of the population of the empire." If this applys to the second outbreak, that would be worse then the first.

The disease or combination of diseases is unknown, but based on descriptions in the writings of Galen, there is speculation about small pox and measles. However, I was wondering about a hemorrhagic virus or bacterium.

Viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) are caused by viruses, such as Ebola, Marburg, Lassa fever, and Rift Valley fever, while Bacterial hemorrhagic fevers are less common and include leptospirosis and plague (probaby refers to pneumonic plague as opposed to bubonic plague, but either one caused by Yersinia pestis). Some symptoms apparently a cough that became bloody with expulsion of lung tissue, which would seem to indicate a pneumonic plague, but apparently measles could cause this as wel, or perhaps it requires a co-infection of smallpox and measles.

For VHF - https://www.cdc.gov/viral-hemorrhagic-fevers/about/index.html

As we saw with the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, i wonder if history will repeat with a more severe plague. Is the world ready for it?

During the reign of Justinian (527–565 CE), Europe was faced with another plague, 541–549. Known as the Plague of Justinian, it was apparently caused by a variant of Yersinia pestis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian
https://www.passporthealthusa.com/2020/08/what-was-the-justinian-plague/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justinian_I

 

[jedishrfu]

Wow, interesting thought, a cocktail of plagues.

The only way the argument would be find some physical evidence in bodies known to have been infected and sequence bones or teeth.

That strategy hasn't been successful for this plague, though.

Wrt our readiness, I think we are as prepared as ever considering the lack of trust in science and medicine. People will die. Protection regimens will be flawed, rolled out too late or a lack of critical supplies will have to be rolled out in a hurry.

It was disheartening during COVID-19 when the guideline was implemented to keep a distance of 6 feet apart, which was based on a misinterpretation of a medical paper. In reality, it should have been 30 feet, as that was the actual distance COVID-19 in aerosol form could travel when expelled during a cough.

 

[BillTre]

That hasn't been successful for this plague, though.

I think it has been done with plague:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/oldest-plague-bacteria-strain-human-victim-bones.

Also small pox I think.

 

[jedishrfu]

Yes, that's true for Europe, but I was referring specifically to the Antonine Plague.

 

[BillTre]

Need some old dead bodies and an old DNA guy.

 

[jedishrfu]

Could modern folks be sequenced to determine via family tree that someone had survived the plague?

 

[BillTre]

Could modern folks be sequenced to determine via family tree that someone had survived the plague?

No. The plague that was in ancestors would not be in their offspring unless they got infected as an independent event.

The effect on the DNA of the survivor population would reflect who (which genomes) survived to reproduce the best. It would change the percentages of particular genes in the population toward those with greater disease resistance. They would then leave more progeny and icrease their percentages in the population. As I recall, the genetics of Europe after the black death (pneumonic plague that can spread by coughing) killed about 1/3 of the people, those that survived and bred had different percentages of blood groups and probably genes affecting things like immune response in the population.
Its a population level mechanism and its not a strong predictor. Its more like a reasonable explanation that people look for after the fact.

There will also be people in every family (or population) that survived this disease or that. All those signals would be mixed together.

 

[pinball1970]

There was a study on this, more than one from DNA samples from mass graves in the UK.
So not as far back as Justinian but back to the 14th Century.
Pretty certain I have posted on it previously.
I'll search when back.

 

[Laroxe]

It seems unlikely that we will ever be sure of the cause of this plague, though most people believe it to have been smallpox. The identification is compounded by the fact that some of the other possibilities could have been circulating at the same time, that's not uncommon. While some people have suggested measles, it's not a good match, the problem is if this was the first exposure to measles in Europe, it would present as a very different disease. The descriptions given by Galen seem to suggest that the disease frequently showed haemorrhagic features, this in smallpox is associated with a mortality rate close to 100%. The Antonine plague appears to have spread through the Roman Empire in two waves, repeated waves of infection being a feature of several infectious diseases. There is evidence of smallpox occurring in Egypt prior to this plague, though the evidence is from the characteristic rash being visible on mummies. Just prior to the plague, the Roman army had returned from a military campaign in the Middle East, which may have introduced the virus to Rome, destabilising the empire for years.