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I have to think about that one.stevendaryl said:There is a slight variant of the lottery example that makes a huge difference in the computed probability. Instead of the newspaper reporting the lottery winner with 98% accuracy, assume that there is a website where you can enter your ticket number, and it tells you, with 98% accuracy, whether you are the winner or not. Even though that sounds similar to the original problem, in this case, it's much more likely that the website is in error than that you are the actual winner.