Bolton: Iran 2/3 way to nuclear weapons

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around John Bolton's claim that Iran is two-thirds of the way toward producing nuclear weapons, with participants questioning the validity of this assertion and the implications of such a statement. The scope includes political commentary, analysis of intelligence assessments, and concerns regarding media representation of nuclear proliferation issues.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Meta-discussion

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses skepticism about Bolton's claim, questioning how he arrived at the conclusion and suggesting it may relate to gas diffusion machinery for fissionable materials.
  • Another participant argues that Bolton's statement is politically motivated and dismisses it as unfounded, contrasting it with the measured language of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) compiled by US intelligence agencies.
  • A participant reiterates doubts about Bolton's knowledge of Iran's nuclear program and questions the meaning of "2/3's" in this context.
  • Concerns are raised about the lack of critical questioning from NPR regarding Bolton's statements, with a call for expert assessment from qualified nuclear scientists or weapons inspectors.
  • One participant acknowledges the potential for clandestine nuclear development in Iran, emphasizing the dual-use nature of technology and the importance of access to highly enriched fissile material.
  • References to Scott Ritter and David Kay are made, highlighting their credibility and the importance of listening to informed voices on the issue.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally disagree on the validity of Bolton's claim and the motivations behind it. There is no consensus on the accuracy of the assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities or the reliability of the information presented by Bolton.

Contextual Notes

Participants express concerns about the political context surrounding the statements made by Bolton and the media's role in presenting these claims without sufficient scrutiny. There are unresolved questions regarding the specifics of Iran's nuclear program and the implications of dual-use technology.

bobnesson
Today 12.08.07 on NPR, John Bolton stated that Iran is 2/3 of the way toward producing nuclear weapons. I assume he is referring to the gas diffusion machinery necessary to create fissionable materials -- U235 etc. But it's unclear how he might arrive at that conclusion [assuming even a tenth of a grain of truth in his statement]. Can someone take a stab at that? Thanks! Bob
 
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Bolton is pulling this stuff out of his neocon butt. As I posted a bit earlier, he has issued a blanket denunciation of the NIE, claiming that all 16 of the US intelligence agencies responsible for compiling it have conspired to downplay Iran's threat, and have done so for political reasons.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=203333

The agencies compiling the NIE used measured, qualified language. Bolton's rash declaration that Iran is 2/3 of the way to producing weapons probably means (in his absolutist neocon belief-system) 1) they know how such weapons function, 2) they know they'll need highly enriched uranium if they want to build a bomb. They're just not at 3) yet: "enrich uranium, build and test bomb components, assemble bomb, test bomb".

It is beyond belief that John Bolton knows more about the bomb-making capacity of the Iranians than all our intelligence agencies combined, though that won't stop Rush and other blathering war-mongers from dittoing him.
 
bobnesson said:
Today 12.08.07 on NPR, John Bolton stated that Iran is 2/3 of the way toward producing nuclear weapons. I assume he is referring to the gas diffusion machinery necessary to create fissionable materials -- U235 etc. But it's unclear how he might arrive at that conclusion [assuming even a tenth of a grain of truth in his statement]. Can someone take a stab at that? Thanks! Bob
I don't think Bolton is in a position to know where the Iranians are in their program. Not sure what he means by 2/3's.
 
Thanks! Bolton is an expert at finding the tiniest fragment of truth and leveraging it. I really take issue with NPR for presenting his statement, along with that of Gates, without any hard questions from the naive interviewer or an assessment from a qualified nuclear scientist or even an informed weapons inspector like David Kay or Scott Ritter. The one-sidedness of NPR and PBS is quite disheartening, but not surprising given the Bush Administration's throttlehold on them.
 
Scott Ritter lives about 80 mi north of me and he is periodically interviewed on the regional NPR affiliated station. One should pay attention to good folks like Ritter and Kay, who are truly committed professionals.

I don't trust anyone inside the Bush Whitehouse.


On the other hand, I am sure there are those in the Iranian government who will try to move ahead with a clandestine nuclear weapons program. They can certainly develop and test the technology with inert materials - and most of the technology is dual use. The only limiting factor is access to highly enriched fissile material.
 
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Scott Ritter is a man on the inside. If you are interested in this Iran issue you may want to watch these interviews:
http://www.democracynow.org/2006/10/16/scott_ritter_on_target_iran_the
http://www.democracynow.org/2006/12/21/target_iran_former_un_weapons_inspector

Edit: Note that these were filmed a year ago, when our "4th estate" apparently didn't give a dam* and Ritter and Hersch were dismissed as alarmists. Guess what? It was true.

"And when Yamur lifted up his Voice, They did not listen.
And when He cried aloud, They put their Hands to their Ears, laughing.
And when He showed them the Cloud upon the Mountains, They said it was afar and would not come nigh.
And when a Sword glinted in the Hills and He pointed to It, They said It was but the Dancing of a Brook in the Sun"

I lifted this narrative from a novel, and inscribed it on the back of my wooden chess-board to remind me to be vigilant. Our country does itself a great disservice by ignoring the warnings of the vigilant and accepting the assertions of the powerful.
 
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