News BREXIT - more good than bad or more bad than good?

[Buckleymanor]

122B on a tally sheet over 13 years per HuffPo, some unkown share of which may be due to the current status of Brexit.

Trade leverage is not a head count, but a money count.

Well I trust the OBR rather than your assessment of some unknown share, 59 billion seems rather conservative.No doubt when the dust settles we will know where to lay the blame.

 

[Buckleymanor]

As mentioned before 59 billion seems rather an underestimate.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646
Who knows what the final tally will be I hope that all the people who voted for it will understand the implications.

 

[nsaspook]

https://apnews.com/e48bf51838ced94e2d92adba189b4944

LONDON (AP) — Britons counted down the hours Friday to their country’s departure from the European Union — some joyous, some sad, many just hopeful the divorce would mark the end an anguished chapter in their country’s history.

The U.K. officially departs the EU at 11 p.m. local time, midnight in Brussels (2300 GMT, 6 p.m. EST). The departure comes 3½ years after the country voted by a margin of 52%-48% to walk away from the club that it had joined in 1973.

 

[phinds]

... I hope that all the people who voted for it will understand the implications.

My understanding is that it is very well documented that most of the people who voted "leave" did NOT even begin to understand the implications, having been straight-out lied to by their politicians who promised that it would all be very simple and advantageous.

They've been getting a better understanding of it lately but it's too late.

 

[epenguin]

https://apnews.com/e48bf51838ced94e2d92adba189b4944

" many just hopeful the divorce would mark the end an anguished chapter in their country’s history."

There are many illusions about this process. The above is one of them.

it is true that a lot of people of the UK are, after the Brexit issue has dominated U.K. politics for 4 years, bored with it, don't want to hear any more about it. But they are about to get more years of what they don't want.

For one thing nothing of substance on the ground will change between today and tomorrow. All laws and regulations remain as they are as we enter into a 'transitional period'. This will last until it is succeeded by a definitive agreement between the now separate UK and the EU. This can in theory happen by the end of 2020; Johnson says it will but practically nobody believes that it will by then; no one believes that Johnson believes it (nor anything else).

For another Britain is moored Geographically next to the European Union, almost as surrounded by the the EU as Switzerland is, nearly half its trade is with the EU, various things will be changing and the UK will no longer have input as of right into EU policies that affect it. So contrary to the above vain hopes relations with the EU will dominate British news and politics for the foreseeable future.

There is just one thing that changes tonight. Brexit is formally definitive and irreversible. This is psychologically important to a lot of Brexiteers. You see ever since these achieved their wafer-thin majority for Brexit they have been dead scared of their flukey victory then slipping from their hands.This fear explains a lot of the subsequent dynamics. For example the pressure to open negotiations prematurely (before the government even knew what its own position and aims were). The welling and stirring up of hatred for the whole political class including PM Theresa May, suspected of not having having their hearts into it. The need of politicians to outflank each other in extremism, which paid off in the last election.

So as for things slipping away from public attention – if only! There would be more of a chance of a sensible agreement if that happened.

 

[Orodruin]

All laws and regulations remain as they are as we enter into a 'transitional period'. this will last until it is succeeded by a definitive agreement between the now separate UK and the EU.

... or lack thereof. ”No deal” remains a possible option. With Johnson saying he will break alignment with EU standards and not extend the transition period it also seems like the only option that satisfies those two. The only way of getting a trade deal with the EU done and implemented in time is essentially to fall flat and accept EU regulations.

 

[WWGD]

FWIW, Britons have been more civil in dealing with their differences than people in the US dealing with Trump, yet there does seem to be a lot of day -dreaming by Brexiters: do you think a country of 66 million will be able to find better trading/general deals than a block of 400+ million? Good luck negotiating a good deal with Don " America First " Trump and other countries/blocks. Their strongest point are the financial and general services sector; if any thing helps them, I suspect it will be that.

 

[fresh_42]

Their strongest point are the financial and general services sector; if any thing helps them, I suspect it will be that.

A total of 40 banks and financial institutions have already moved their businesses from London to Frankfurt or are about to do so. (Report by New Financial - British think tank)

 

[phinds]

For another Britain is moored Geographically next to the European Union, almost as surrounded by the the EU as Switzerland is, nearly half its trade is with the EU, various things will be changing and the UK will no longer have input as of right into EU policies that affect it.

And add to this the fact that geographic proximity is by far the most important characteristic of trade deals. They've really screwed themselves on that front.

 

[fresh_42]

And add to this the fact that geographic proximity is by far the most important characteristic of trade deals. They've really screwed themselves on that front.

It's not only that. Many companies have representations or even factories in both. How beneficial is it for them to have two different law systems to obey? Not to mention prehistoric custom systems. If A produces a screw for a part in B which again is finally assembled in A, what are the custom fees? A nightmare.

 

[WWGD]

It's not only that. Many companies have representations or even factories in both. How beneficial is it for them to have two different law systems to obey? Not to mention prehistoric custom systems. If A produces a screw for a part in B which again is finally assembled in A, what are the custom fees? A nightmare.

On top of moving the products across hard borders. With Ireland, and Northern Ireland itself.

 

[Buckleymanor]

My understanding is that it is very well documented that most of the people who voted "leave" did NOT even begin to understand the implications, having been straight-out lied to by their politicians who promised that it would all be very simple and advantageous.

They've been getting a better understanding of it lately but it's too late.

I could not agree more the information being brought to light indicates that GB is in effect giving itself it's own sanctions without the help of any hostile influence.
This in effect could result in the eventual breakup of GB with Scotland and Ireland leaving the Union.
Good heavens what have we done!

 

[PeroK]

What I think will be interesting now is that - to some extent - the pro Brexiteers will have to move on from their victim mentality. At the moment, everything that is wrong with the UK is the fault of the EU and the remainers. It will be an interesting transition to the politics where everything is the fault of Brexit!

 

[Jonathan Scott]

There are some interesting statistical correlations with voting Leave or Remain. The most spectacular is with level of education (based on the proportion of graduates in the local electorate), in that areas with higher levels of graduates were far more likely to vote Remain. There is also an effect of age, with older people more likely to vote Leave, even after correction for education level. See the following articles for more detail:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034
http://www.statsguy.co.uk/brexit-voting-and-education/
I was personally very shocked by the referendum result, because of the people I actually know (mostly in IBM or my amateur orchestras) hardly any would have considered voting Leave themselves, and most of us would have considered anyone who did to be extremely gullible, and/or extremely xenophobic. So if anyone can come up with a scientific measure of gullibility for UK voters, I think there would be an even stronger correlation with voting Leave.

It's also totally misleading for them to proclaim that Brexit has been "achieved". The only "deal" so far is just a vague bit of hand-waving which pushes all the apparently unsolvable problems down the road for a few months. The situation at the end of 2020 is nearly as terrifying as it was when imminent "no-deal" Brexit loomed back in October, and is in some ways worse, because Boris has made it as difficult as possible to extend the transition period.

 

[fresh_42]

That doesn't take me wonder. The educated understand global economy and that there is no way back, and they understand themselves as part of Europe. The elderly still dream of the empire. But there is no way back either.

We currently live in the longest period of peace in Europe ever. Nationalisms are the biggest threat to it. Too bad so many people seem to have forgotten what had happened when everybody followed only its own interests, which was basically during the entire European history. For this alone I would have voted Remain. And there are future conflicts on the horizon: oil, gas, fishing, fresh water, GW, migration! I do not trust people. The inertia of the EU is a benefit, not a disadvantage. Big problems don't allow quick solutions. Never did.

 

[PeroK]

It's also totally misleading for them to proclaim that Brexit has been "achieved". The only "deal" so far is just a vague bit of hand-waving which pushes all the apparently unsolvable problems down the road for a few months. The situation at the end of 2020 is nearly as terrifying as it was when imminent "no-deal" Brexit loomed back in October, and is in some ways worse, because Boris has made it as difficult as possible to extend the transition period.

First, whatever you think about it, Brexit has been a remarkable political coup. There was a slim majority in the UK to leave and they have achieved it. We're definitely as good as out now.

Second, it's clear that there is little mood in the UK to extend the fight. There is no political capital in trying to reverse it. We all have to accept it's going to happen.

Third, Boris was elected to do precisely what he is intent on doing. Whatever you feel personally, there is no viable political capital in the UK now other than to get us out as soon as practical. He stood on an unequivocal position to do this. This is what he was elected to do, like it or not.

 

[Orodruin]

the pro Brexiteers will have to move on from their victim mentality. At the moment, everything that is wrong with the UK is the fault of the EU and the remainers.

I am not convinced that this is true. There will be many things left to blame the EU for: Not giving a good trade deal, asking ”unreasonable” things in trade negotiations, not accepting a non-existing border that threatens the integrity of the single market, etc.

 

[PeroK]

I am not convinced that this is true. There will be many things left to blame the EU for: Not giving a good trade deal, asking ”unreasonable” things in trade negotiations, not accepting a non-existing border that threatens the integrity of the single market, etc.

That's why I qualified it with "to an extent". They are effectively the government now and it's not easy to hide in a modern democracy when you are actually the government.

PS I agree they will do all those things.

 

[Orodruin]

That's why I qualified it with "to an extent". They are effectively the government now and it's not easy to hide in a modern democracy when you are actually the government.

To a large extent this depends on the media and the way media puts an angle on things.

 

[PeroK]

To a large extent this depends on the media and the way media puts an angle on things.

The media, generally, are merciless!

 

[epenguin]

It's not only that. Many companies have representations or even factories in both. How beneficial is it for them to have two different law systems to obey? Not to mention prehistoric custom systems. If A produces a screw for a part in B which again is finally assembled in A, what are the custom fees? A nightmare.

Well yes, the manufacture of an individual car is now often cross-border - part of it is constructed in one country then transported to e.g. the UK where various other parts are added then it is transported elsewhere for further work - the transport is calculated down to the hour, maybe it goes back and forth more than once. Part of the advantage and justification of the EU is that it enables this sort of integration and scale, thereby maintaining a competitiveness with other parts of the world that individual national producers would not. It is obviously best if this takes place within a single fiscal, regulatory etc. regime and potential nightmare if customs procedures have To be inserted into these systems that depend on rapid exchange. "Regulatory divergence would mean cars (and car parts) being subject to compliance checks in both directions, increasing costs and delays." (Economist yesterday)

These things have been debated up hill and down dale in the UK; everybody learns just enough to maintain their end in polemics. Debate takes place against the background of change and uncertainty in the car market anyway - the collapse of demand for diesel is just one of the relevant destablisers. Don't imagine the debate is much concerned with the economics (employment etc) or even environment, the point rather is what political mileage can be obtained from anything? E.g. following a few deaths of cyclists in accidents in London Boris made claims that a wheeze of his about lorry (truck) cabin design (he has a lot like that) had been blocked by the EU. When this was looked into it turned out that it had been the UK Government that had been delaying and watering down new EU regulations to improve lorry safety. But no one cared, by the time the boring true story had been discovered the Boris show had moved on to kippers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nson-claims-about-kippers-fishy-brussels-says
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-kipper-rant-tory-hustings-isle-man-a9010591.html

 

[Orodruin]

The media, generally, are merciless!

The media played a large part in getting Brexit in the first place. I am not sure they are going to change their tune any more than people who vited for Brexit will.

 

[fresh_42]

The media, generally, are merciless!

Strange. That reminds me that I dreamt of grabbing The Sun last night. However, I forgot why.
Many British people who live here got a second citizenship lately...

 

[Jonathan Scott]

Third, Boris was elected to do precisely what he is intent on doing. Whatever you feel personally, there is no viable political capital in the UK now other than to get us out as soon as practical. He stood on an unequivocal position to do this. This is what he was elected to do, like it or not.

He didn't win the election so much as the opposition lost it. And before the election, he stated repeatedly that it wasn't only about Brexit, but afterwards he clearly labelled it a total mandate for Brexit.

Our first-past-the-post electoral system is seriously flawed; it only works locally when there are two main parties. When there are three or more, if you don't want one of the main two parties to get in, the only way to try to stop them is to vote for the other, even if you actually want to vote for another party. If you do vote for one of the other parties, the vote is essentially wasted, as it is not reflected in any way in the results.

 

[PeroK]

He didn't win the election so much as the opposition lost it. And before the election, he stated repeatedly that it wasn't only about Brexit, but afterwards he clearly labelled it a total mandate for Brexit.

Our first-past-the-post electoral system is seriously flawed; it only works locally when there are two main parties. When there are three or more, if you don't want one of the main two parties to get in, the only way to try to stop them is to vote for the other, even if you actually want to vote for another party. If you do vote for one of the other parties, the vote is essentially wasted, as it is not reflected in any way in the results.

Well, okay, but if BJ has no mandate to lead the country then who has? No government ever has a majority of the popular vote. Not in my lifetime. It's not the worst way to choose a government.

 

[Bandersnatch]

E.g. following a few deaths of cyclists in accidents in London Boris made claims that a wheeze of his about lorry (truck) cabin design (he has a lot like that) had been blocked by the EU. When this was looked into it turned out that it had been the UK Government that had been delaying and watering down new EU regulations to improve lorry safety. But no one cared, by the time the boring true story had been discovered the Boris show had moved on to kippers.

As far as I understand, this, uh, creative reporting has been his modus operandi ever since his time as a EU correspondent at The Daily Telegraph.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

An election based on who can tell the most attractive lies and get away with it is not a shining example of democracy in action, and the UK isn't alone in experiencing that.
With a more proportional system, the Lib Dems, Greens and so on could at least hold a balance of power to keep things from getting too ridiculously polarized. (The main party policies seem to be mainly to do exactly the opposite of the other, even though the sensible position lies somewhere in the middle).

 

[rootone]

I am UK born but have lived for a long time somewhere else.
That is probably a good thing as far as I can tell.
I won't be annoying at airports, honestly, I promise.

 

[fresh_42]

I am UK born but have lived for a long time somewhere else.
That is probably a good thing as far as I can tell.
I won't be annoying at airports, honestly, I promise.

Since the UK never signed Schengen, where is the difference?

 

[phinds]

I am UK born but have lived for a long time somewhere else.
That is probably a good thing as far as I can tell.
I won't be annoying at airports, honestly, I promise.

So, I take it it's a secret where you live now.

 

[bhobba]

An election based on who can tell the most attractive lies and get away with it is not a shining example of democracy in action, and the UK isn't alone in experiencing that.

Often true in many elections, possibly even most.

Personally I think a lot of people get worked up about things that really, when you get down to it, are like a Star Trek episode where they made fun of our epoch being so concerned about political systems. Out here in Australia we had a government sacked and new elections called. That really caused, at the time, a huge amount of, shall we say heated debate. But now many people say, not all - there are some who still are very worked up about it taking one side or the other - but many, is it really that bad we held an election - after all that's what democracy is about. I think in 20 years time Brexit will evoke the same reaction - why were we so worked up about it, one way or the other. After all it's just a way of grouping countries for trade, currency etc etc. If people would prefer not to it is it really that bad? Personally though I had a sigh of exasperation when I saw a documentary on the European Parliament and how many members were basically asleep during sessions and it looked like a huge rort to me. Things like that do not endear themselves to the average voter.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Orodruin]

After all it's just a way of grouping countries for trade, currency etc etc. If people would prefer not to it is it really that bad?

You can make anything sound less severe by putting ”just” in front of it. The issue here is that people may not realize how important trade is for their economy - both the national and personal economy. Much of the UK’s economy relies on having frictionless free access to the single market. Take that away and many companies will suffer, leading to a chain of a priori undesirable outcomes including higher prices and higher unemployment. Of course, the UK could try to arrange a trade deal that includes fully free trade, but the EU will never accept such a deal without the UK submitting to EU rules and regulations, which they now really would have no say in. Even Boris would have a hard time selling that to his voters.

Personally though I had a sigh of exasperation when I saw a documentary on the European Parliament and how many members were basically asleep during sessions and it looked like a huge rort to me. Things like that do not endear themselves to the average voter.

I do not think this is particular to the European parliament. Take any parliament in the world and most of the work is going to be done in committees and many actual sessions of parliament are going to be visited only by a minority of MPs. If you look at the MEPs of the Brexit party they were doing worse than the average MEP in terms of attending their committees. The main example being Nigel Farage who allegedly rarely showed up to represent the UK’s interest in the fisheries committee.

There are also going to be a bunch of nasty surprises for the UK government down the road from the fact that the EU is always going to side with their member states in disputes, such as the dispute with Spain over Gibraltar. Now that the UK has left, they no longer need to have the gentle gloves on in negotiations.

 

[WWGD]

Often true in many elections, possibly even most.

Personally I think a lot of people get worked up about things that really, when you get down to it, are like a Star Trek episode where they made fun of our epoch being so concerned about political systems. Out here in Australia we had a government sacked and new elections called. That really caused, at the time, a huge amount of, shall we say heated debate. But now many people say, not all - there are some who still are very worked up about it taking one side or the other - but many, is it really that bad we held an election - after all that's what democracy is about. I think in 20 years time Brexit will evoke the same reaction - why were we so worked up about it, one way or the other. After all it's just a way of grouping countries for trade, currency etc etc. If people would prefer not to it is it really that bad? Personally though I had a sigh of exasperation when I saw a documentary on the European Parliament and how many members were basically asleep during sessions and it looked like a huge rort to me. Things like that do not endear themselves to the average voter.

Thanks
Bill

I see the issue of being about the UK being able to negotiate trade and other deals individually vs as part of a much larger block. A market of some 500 million people totaling more than $20T gdp can ask and expect to receive much better deals than a single country with some 70 million people; small when compared with other blocks. Going it alone does not seem wise.

 

[Jonathan Scott]

There are innumerable ways in which everyday life in the UK has been based on the long-term assumption that the UK is an integral part of an EU community with no internal borders, including of course the Northern Ireland border, where there are for example about 270 public roads which currently cross the border (some of them multiple times) and quite a few properties which cross the border, as in this story from two years ago:
https://news.sky.com/story/homes-and-businesses-divided-by-irish-border-11150875

For over 40 years, the UK has also gained the benefits of routinely sharing Europe-wide resources including trade negotiating teams, joint standards organisations and so on. Now they have suddenly realized that they need to train up UK people for these roles as the BBC reported last July:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48943551

The BBC itself has been heavily criticised for being "anti-Brexit" in their coverage, by repeatedly calling attention to the potential problems, and even for the fact that panel shows rarely include any pro-Brexit people!
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...a-difficult-balancing-act-in-polarised-nation
This is obviously because the problems are real and the majority of better-educated people are indeed anti-Brexit, but this is not considered an acceptable excuse by Brexit supporters.

Overall, the EU requires that there is a border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, which would either need to be in the Irish Sea or at the Northern Irish border. For purposes of obtaining a Brexit agreement, Boris said the border is effectively in the Irish Sea, but he now keeps saying there will also be no border checks at the Irish sea (although his own ministers and EU negotiators have contradicted him):
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...cks-needed-on-irish-sea-trade-after-brexit-eu

[It's well-known that people tend to select evidence that supports what they would like to be true and ignore evidence against it, but this seems an extreme case. I don't understand exactly what's gone wrong here (and in the US) and this thread is not the place to discuss it, but perhaps it may be related to the rise of social media, where authority and influence is now based on popularity within the general population, instead of being based on approval within a community of similarly authoritative peers.]

 

[fresh_42]

I don't understand exactly what's gone wrong here (and in the US) and this thread is not the place to discuss it, but perhaps it may be related to the rise of social media, where authority and influence is now based on popularity within the general population, instead of being based on approval within a community of similarly authoritative peers.]

The system to rely on propaganda instead of facts is at least as old as the Nazis in Germany and Goebbels' methods are. Hence we cannot blame social media. This "fake news" discussion, which we have here, too, is actually a product of the Nazis, who used it to spread their own lies. Zuckerberg isn't too blame. The fact that we constantly ignore our own history is.
„Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” - George Santayana (1863-1952)

 

[epenguin]

, but he now keeps saying there will also be no border checks at the Irish sea (although his own ministers and EU negotiators have contradicted him):
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...cks-needed-on-irish-sea-trade-after-brexit-eu

[It's well-known that people tend to select evidence that supports what they would like to be true and ignore evidence against it, but this seems an extreme case. I don't understand exactly what's gone wrong here (and in the US) and this thread is not the place to discuss it, but perhaps it may be related to the rise of social media, where authority and influence is now based on popularity within the general population, instead of being based on approval within a community of similarly authoritative peers.]

The phrase has been around (if I am not mistaken only since about last year - though the phenomenon longer) post-truth. Or the 'post-truth society'.

I found the case of the kippers striking. I don't know if Jonathan perceived the same as I did. That when Boris said it, nobody was much concerned either way about whether it was true or not. For anti-Boris people it was just something Boris said, discounted, no urgency to look into whether it contaiNed by way of exception some grain of truth, just it was typical Boris that's all. Pro Boris people liked it, they were in no way bothered to back it up or defend it. When the truth came out it made no impression either way. Nobody was scandalised that it was plain invention. Not even part of some dark plot of deception. Not a big lie to sneak past us a big thing. Nobody demanded the PM of the country be held to account for outright lying. Just normal that you said anything whatever that suited you on the spur of the moment.

(Old fashioned scientists grew up among phrases like "the search for the truth". But I gather that to modern ones a kipper can be at the same time wrapped W and unwrapped, not W. However I thought that when you interacted with it it became one or the other, If you unwrapped it it became unwrapped.But now I remember in a universe nearby though without possibility of communication it would be the opposite.

All very confusing really.)

 

[Jonathan Scott]

I guess I'm not made for the post-truth society. I grew up believing truth was essential in life, as it is in science and engineering; one false assumption can bring down a whole edifice. Lying goes along with cheating and stealing as unacceptable. I personally find it very difficult to tell lies, even "white lies" or lies to protect someone vulnerable, and can usually only get past the block by saying something which is not technically a lie but is probably somewhat misleading. I also find it difficult to give or receive the usual insincere social pleasantries; if I ask someone how they are, that means I'm really interested to know! (Perhaps I'm not made for society at all!)

 

[epenguin]

I guess I'm not made for the post-truth society. I grew up believing truth was essential in life, as it is in science and engineering; one false assumption can bring down a whole edifice. Lying goes along with cheating and stealing as unacceptable. I personally find it very difficult to tell lies, even "white lies" or lies to protect someone vulnerable, and can usually only get past the block by saying something which is not technically a lie but is probably somewhat misleading. I also find it difficult to give or receive the usual insincere social pleasantries; if I ask someone how they are, that means I'm really interested to know! (Perhaps I'm not made for society at all!)

We are looking like an evolutionary irrelevance, but maybe over a longer period some of our genes and memes...

 

[bhobba]

Nobody was scandalised that it was plain invention. Not even part of some dark plot of deception. Not a big lie to sneak past us a big thing. Nobody demanded the PM of the country be held to account for outright lying. Just normal that you said anything whatever that suited you on the spur of the moment.

Ever noticed how governments love to announce sometimes extremely important things just before a long weekend as we call it in Australia? Once you notice the pattern it is almost comical if it wasn't for the fact its sometimes about a very important issue. In the unlikely event they are caught out about it, well its we must have an inquiry into whatever issue it was about - an inquiry that when finished everyone has forgotten what it was about anyway. Only if that fails, and it seems to work most of the time, which is why they do it, does actual action happen. Even then that action is often just an expensive cover up. Take the financial industries Royal Commission here in Australia - it exposed some horrendous findings such as charging fees for no service, the selling of useless insurance, board meetings where customers issues were never discussed just the board members multi-million remuneration packages etc etc. Heads were going to roll. The financial industry would never be the same again. Guess what - a year on - a few directors resigned - but, basically, nothing really happened. I have to admit though there are still images left in my mind of the heads of these financial institutions being humbled by this young baby faced QC (Queens Council - often also called Senior Council if they wish - its up to them which they choose - they are like senior lawyers with at least 10 years experience in the US system, except its officially recognized), called the baby faced assassin. The executives would start out on the stand all cocky as if they had had the power, and soon found out who had the real power in the court room - one executive was even carried out on a stretcher presumably from a panic attack.

But as I said a year on - nothing has really happened. Amazing - or maybe not that amazing.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Vanadium 50]

The tenor of this thread has changed. Early on, it acknowledged that there would be winners and losers and there was an attempt to understand - and yes, argue one's positions - on whether there would be more winners or losers and whether this is a net gain or not. (These are different things - it is possible for there to be a net loss and more winners, and vice versa)

Now the position seems to be that this is bad for everyone, and the only reason a greengrocer in Lincolnshire would vote Leave is because he has been lied to and is to stupid to see it. (With the implication that he shouldn't be voting at all if he is that stupid)

While I am not an expert in these matters, it seems to me unlikely that this is the first political decision in the history of mankind that did not have winners and losers - only losers.

I would also suggest that while maybe having a referendum was a bad idea, once it was conducted and the votes counted, an attempt to overturn it because "the people got the wrong answer" would be viewed by those people as profoundly undemocratic.

As the Guardian - hardly a bastion of right-wingnuttery said: At the heart of it [the call for a second referendum] is an epistemic claim: people did not understand what was at stake and now that they do, we should give them a chance to vote differently. Instead of basing our political system on two fundamental principles – equal political rights (for those over 18) and majority rule – this claim introduces a new element, knowledge. It presumes that people who voted leave first time around were ignorant or misguided, or both. It also suggests that one’s right to act politically rests in part upon one’s ability to be informed about the issues in question.

 

[fresh_42]

As the Guardian - hardly a bastion of right-wingnuttery said: At the heart of it [the call for a second referendum] is an epistemic claim: people did not understand what was at stake and now that they do, we should give them a chance to vote differently.

Well, there is one aspect which contradicts this position in part: The Scottish. They were cheated, since as they voted for their independence, being part of the EU was the major argument of the English establishment. Only to find out some time later, that this was a lie. So there are indeed people who where misguided.

And here is a personal quote an English lady once said to me: "What do you expect? I'm English. We lie." Sorry, but she actually said this.

 

[russ_watters]

Well, there is one aspect which contradicts this position in part: The Scottish. They were cheated, since as they voted for their independence, being part of the EU was the major argument of the English establishment. Only to find out some time later, that this was a lie. So there are indeed people who where misguided.

And here is a personal quote an English lady once said to me: "What do you expect? I'm English. We lie." Sorry, but she actually said this.

Truth does not have a time machine.

 

[fresh_42]

Truth does not have a time machine.

No, but it demonstrates the means politicians have chosen to convince people. Truth wasn't the preferred one.

 

[russ_watters]

No, but it demonstrates the means politicians have chosen to convince people. Truth wasn't the preferred one.

I know I'm not real plugged into the issue, but my recollection is that the Brexit vote was not a slam dunk. Am I wrong? And if so, how would an obvious and vast majority vote constitute a form of deception?

 

[fresh_42]

And if so, how would an obvious and vast majority vote constitute a form of deception?

Because people are stupid and even worse: uniformed. I've seen interviews on the British countryside where the majority voted LEAVE, only to recognize later on, that the EU paid them millions of money on projects to develop their countryside. Now they will lose this money, and already regret their choice. Sure, it is an example. I cannot ask all pro Brexiteers. However, it shows the mechanisms which were at work. Follow the money is an easy way to see the truth - one of my preferred ones. Money doesn't lie. Now look at who has profited by how much money from the Brexit? You bet it wasn't the people on the countryside.

Here is the answer to your question, at 1:16.

 

[russ_watters]

Because people are stupid and even worse: uniformed.

So, again: too dumb to be allowed to vote. Wow. We're in scary times indeed.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Someone who is a UK resident should correct me, but my understanding of the timeline was that in 2013, David Cameron promised a referendum should the Tories be elected, expecting that it would be overwhelmingly pro-Remain. In 2014 Scotland voted to remain in the EU. In 2016 the referendum happened, and I think it is fair to say that the result was as surprising as the US election of 2016. Polls broke both ways, but the "better polls" showed Remain up a few points.

I think there's no question that things turned out badly for Scotland, but I am at a loss to decide who exactly lied. Not Remain. Not Leave. The pollsters? Who knew the referendum would turn out the way that it did?

If one wants to argue that there shouldn't have been a referendum because of implicit promises to the Scots, that's a fair point. But once the referendum happened, I don't think anyone could make that point.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Here is the answer to your question, at 1:16.

Goodwin's Law?

 

[fresh_42]

So, again: too dumb to be allowed to vote. Wow. We're in scary times indeed.

No, we are not. But we should face the power of propaganda.

 

[fresh_42]

If one wants to argue that there shouldn't have been a referendum because of implicit promises to the Scots, that's a fair point. But once the referendum happened, I don't think anyone could make that point.

No, and again. It demonstrates the rules they had been playing to. And BJ and NF traveled in this bus:

and this was definitely a lie. Even though a big red one.

Btw big red one. 20-10 and 7:13 to go. I'm pis***