Bus arrivals independent random variables

[Mark J.]

Hi.
Why in all literature bus arrivals are referred as independent random variables (Poisson as well)?
Is there any reference where there is some math explanation except intuitive approach which of course tell that there is no correlation between 2 bus arrivals?
Best regards

 

[SW VandeCarr]

Hi.
Why in all literature bus arrivals are referred as independent random variables (Poisson as well)?
Is there any reference where there is some math explanation except intuitive approach which of course tell that there is no correlation between 2 bus arrivals?
Best regards

The Poisson distribution is not a good model for vehicle traffic in general, and I wouldn't expect to be very good for scheduled bus service even though the schedule is often just a suggestion. It does work well in a number of applications including time between emergency ward arrivals during high traffic hours.

http://cs.ucsb.edu/~ravenben/classes/276/papers/pf95.pdf