Calculate Prediction Accuracy Using Statistical Test

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around identifying a statistical test or method to quantify the prediction accuracy of an equation based on observed and predicted values. The context includes theoretical aspects of statistical analysis and practical application in evaluating model performance.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant seeks the name of a statistical test to determine the percentage accuracy of their predictive equation based on observed data.
  • Another participant questions the clarity and sense of the initial query, implying a need for more context regarding the "equation" mentioned.
  • A participant elaborates on the scenario involving species sizes, expressing a desire to understand how to quantify the percentage of variation explained by the predictive model without specific details on the method used in the referenced article.
  • Another participant suggests a method involving the identification of the distribution of the observed variable and estimating its mean and variance as a way to assess prediction accuracy.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the specific statistical test or method to use, and there are differing interpretations of the initial question and its clarity.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights potential limitations in understanding the statistical methods referenced, including assumptions about data distribution and the lack of clarity in the original question.

Yann
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I have two sets of data. The first is the observed value for a number of objects, the second is the predicted value for those objects. I want to know how much, in %, my equation is able to predict. What's the name of the statistical test to know that ?
 
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Yann said:
I have two sets of data. The first is the observed value for a number of objects, the second is the predicted value for those objects. I want to know how much, in %, my equation is able to predict. What's the name of the statistical test to know that ?
What "equation" are you talking about? Are you under the impression that this question makes any sense at all?
 
Lets say you have a number of species and you know their size S;

(S1, S2, S3 .. Sn)...

Then, you have an equation to predict the size on those animals. So you have another "vector" with predicted size P;

(P1, P2, P3 ... Pn)...

In an article, the author said his equation (the one he used to get P1, P2...) explains X% of the variation in size, but he doesn't give any clue to the method he used to find that %. I just want to know what's the name of the method he used, how can you know how much the predicted size explains the variations in the observed size ?
 
What I understood it correctly is as follows:

U have an equation y=f(x), to find the size of the animal.
Now to find its accuracy, u take a sample of size n (i.e. ur observed value) n try to find the % of variation by comparing the values of actual n observed one…
One simple method is
Find out which distribution the random variable X (the size) follows.
If it follows normal distribution, then try to estimate the mean n variance of it by using some unbiased estimator (for any other distribution, estimate the unknown parameter of the PDF).
Hope u can do the needful… good luck
 

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