Calculating Conditional Probability for Poisson Processes

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The discussion focuses on calculating the conditional expectation E[Xt|Xs] for a Poisson process {Nt, t>0} with arrival rate λ, where {Xt = exp(Nt - a*t, t>0}. Participants emphasize the necessity of analytical methods over simulation for this calculation, highlighting the importance of understanding Poisson processes and their properties in deriving the solution.

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gradnu
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Let {Nt, t>0} be a Poisson process with arrival rate \lambda.
Consider a process {Xt = exp(Nt-a*t, t>0}.
How to calculate E[Xt|Xs] for 0<s<t.
 
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By simulation?
 
No. Analytically on paper.
 

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