Calculating Poisson Probability for Car Rental Income

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating Poisson probability for a car rental shop with four cars and an average daily demand of four. The expected daily income from rentals is calculated as $86.6, based on the incorrect assumption of using P(X=4) instead of P(X>=4). The correct approach requires considering the entire distribution to ensure probabilities sum to one, highlighting the importance of understanding Poisson distributions in this context.

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  • Understanding of Poisson distributions
  • Basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with expected value calculations
  • Knowledge of income calculations in rental scenarios
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  • Study the differences between Poisson and binomial distributions
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Students in statistics, business analysts, and anyone involved in rental business operations seeking to optimize income calculations using probability theory.

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Homework Statement



A car rental shop has four cars to be rented out on a daily basis at $ 50 per car. The average daily demand for cars is four.

(1) Calculate the expected daily income received from the rentals

(2) If the shop wishes to have one more car, the additional cost incurred is $ 20 per day DEtermine whether the shop should buy another car for rental.

Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



(1) X-p(4)

P(X=0)=0.0183
P(X=1)=0.07326
P(X=2)=0.1465
P(X=3)=0.195
P(X=4)=0.195

The expected number of cars rented out is about 1.73 so the expected income is

1.73 x $50= $ 86.6

But my answer is wrong.
 
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Why do you stop calculating probabilities at 4... they hardly add up to the total of 1, so you are using an incomplete distribution here.

I'm not really into Poisson distributions, but if the average is 4, isn't the answer simply 4 x $50 as it would with a binomial distribution?
 
CompuChip said:
Why do you stop calculating probabilities at 4... they hardly add up to the total of 1, so you are using an incomplete distribution here.

I'm not really into Poisson distributions, but if the average is 4, isn't the answer simply 4 x $50 as it would with a binomial distribution?

thanks Compuchip, i figured that out. I calculated P(X=4) instead of P(X>=4), that's why the probabilities do not add up to 1.
 

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