Calculating Probability using the Poisson Distribution

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating probabilities using the Poisson distribution, specifically in the context of student arrivals in a classroom setting. The original poster presents a scenario where the average arrival rate is 2 students per hour and seeks to determine the probability that the time between two consecutive arrivals falls within a specified interval.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Conceptual clarification, Assumption checking

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants explore the parameters of the Poisson distribution, questioning the definitions of k (the number of events) and λ (the average rate of events). There is discussion about whether the original equation is appropriate for the problem at hand and suggestions to rephrase the question for clarity.

Discussion Status

Participants are actively engaging with the problem, questioning assumptions and clarifying definitions. Some guidance has been provided regarding the use of the Exponential distribution and the implications of the Poisson process. The conversation reflects a productive exploration of the problem without reaching a consensus on the solution.

Contextual Notes

There is an ongoing discussion about the constraints of the problem, particularly regarding the interpretation of the time intervals and the implications of the average arrival rate. Participants are considering how to accurately apply the Poisson distribution to the scenario described.

  • #31
sol59 said:
The probability of no arrivals in (9:10, 9:50) is P(Y=0)=e-4/3=0.264
Right, so what is the probability of at least 1 arrival in (9:10, 9:50) ?
 
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  • #32
haruspex said:
Right, so what is the probability of at least 1 arrival in (9:10, 9:50) ?

1-0.264=0.736
 
  • #33
sol59 said:
1-0.264=0.736
Good. So put it all together. What is the probability of no arrivals in (9:00, 9:10) and at least one in (9:10, 9:50)?
 
  • #34
haruspex said:
Good. So put it all together. What is the probability of no arrivals in (9:00, 9:10) and at least one in (9:10, 9:50)?

0,736*0.716=0.527
 
  • #35
sol59 said:
0,736*0.716=0.527
You got there!
 
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  • #36
haruspex said:
You got there!

Thank you so much for your help! I've managed to solve all other problems but this one was too difficult for me:) Thanks again:)!
 

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