Vanadium 50 said:
This is what happens when one gets one's economics from Dave Ramsey rather than learning how to do research on your own.
I was going to give a like for this alone, and I generally think you have a voice of reason for these sorts of threads. But in this case, I think the rest of your post falls short, unfortunately.
Vanadium 50 said:
Can we agree that the absolute cheapest drugs can get is no cheaper than when the company that makes them makes zero profit? It turns out that all US publicly traded companies have to file a form with the SEC called a 10-K which says, among other things, what their revenues were and what their profits were for the preceding years. This is public, and can easily be found on each company's web site. You will find that most of these companies have profits in the 20% ballpark - with some annual variation, of course.
So that's the maximum possible savings: 20%. In real life, it's much smaller.
kryphysics point was about pricing in the US. You're right to focus on the entire pie size. The fallacy is you somehow have US and other rich world members on the same footing. They are not.
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Let me give a simple finance typical look at this. First, I presume you're talking about 20% Operation Profit Margin or EBIT (or some similar metric).
Limit the scope of the world to the rich world: Japan, Western Europe, Canada and US, plus perhaps Australia and a few more. This is a common rich world grouping. The US has about ##\frac{1}{3}## of this population, yet is responsible for a majority of pharma profits. Note that these products have very low marginal Cost of Goods Sold i.e. production and shipping costs. The real expenses are in R&D and marketing.
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reference:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-u-s-pays-more-than-other-countries-for-drugs-1448939481
or better, simply look at the chart here:
https://www.economist.com/news/scie...more-america-elsewhere-may-be-just-priced-out
and note the mix of consumption may not be the same but the comparisons between, US, UK and Oz should jump off the page.
I no longer have my subscription to
Health Affairs, which would have much more detailed info, but the chart in The Economist link really should suffice. When effect sizes are this big, problems really do get a lot easier.
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You can
easily make the case of prices falling by ##25\text{%}## or more in the US if other members of the rich world were to pay more (about ##25\text{%}## more in this case) while not affecting pharma profits much at all.
(How to price drugs in low to middle income countries is a much more difficult problem, and way outside the scope.)
With more granular numbers I could interpolate the amount they'd fall in the US while keeping total sales to big pharma constant -- though the pricing changes would be so high that there would probably be substitution effects which would further complicate things-- if we homogenized the pricing amongst the rich world.
But the point is that ##25\text{%}## is an easy estimate, which leaves room for
a lot more equalization, does not touch pharma profitability, and it exceeds than the strict upper bound you gave on percentage price drops in the US. Put differently, I'm suggesting a ##25\text{%}## drop as a loose lower bound for US pricing.
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It should be obvious that there's a negotiating problem here, but who really understands negotiating? Some more reading here:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/09/economist-explains-2
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Mathematical note:
If you want something fancier, I can come up with a doubly stochastic matrix ##\mathbf A## that maps from the current highly unequal pricing mix between rich world countries to a mildly more equitable one. Some
basic ideas about majorization are very useful when contemplating issues like this.
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Above and beyond this, its widely viewed that direct to consumer advertising on Rx drugs -- basically a US phenomenon-- are highly manipulative with little to no information value -- a lot of other marketing expenses fit in this bucket too, especially a lot of 'education' expenses with physicians -- formerly including family vacations to the Caribbean, though I think that got reined in a decade or two ago. Put differently direct to consumer and some other marketing expenditures are a dead-weight loss. The issue of dead-weight losses to society is a bit more subtle, so I'll mention that but not develop it.